More than 800,000 homes could be at high risk of severe flooding by 2080, an analysis has found, as green groups warn of the growing impacts of climate change on UK households.
Campaigners are urging the government and other parties to make polluters pay, increase funding for local authorities and emergency services, and ensure access to affordable home insurance ahead of the local elections.
Communities across the UK have been hit by storms, persistent rainfall and flooding in recent weeks, with the South East and south of England recording their wettest start to a year on record.
About 866,000 homes could face a “high” or “very high” risk of flooding by 2080 if global temperatures rise by 2.4C above pre-industrial levels, according to research by flood risk assessment firm Geosmart for Greenpeace.
The analysis compared flood risk across regions and local authorities in Britain under that climate scenario. It found that 386,716 homes in Scotland – 19% of the country’s housing stock – could be at high or very high risk.
South East England could see 122,484 homes affected (2% of the region’s total), followed by 71,431 in Wales (5%), 65,884 in the South West (3%) and 59,918 in the East of England (2%).
Elsewhere, 53,229 homes in the East Midlands (2%) could face that level of risk, along with 45,320 in the North West (2%), 35,459 in Yorkshire and the Humber (2%), 18,049 in the West Midlands (1%) and 7,595 in the North East (1%).
Phillip Evans, Greenpeace UK’s senior climate campaigner, said: “The economic cost of the storms and floods battering Britain is skyrocketing.
“Our data clearly shows that more and more homes will face rising flood risk due to extreme weather events.
“Already, homes in some areas are becoming uninsurable and in certain cases insurers are abandoning towns, leaving councils to pick up the tab.”
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates global temperatures could rise by around 2.7C by 2100 under current government policies, with a 2.4C increase by 2080 fitting with that mid-range scenario.
In the UK, scientists say weather patterns have grown increasingly volatile, with six of the ten wettest winters on record occurring in the past 20 years.
Separate analysis of Environment Agency data by Friends of the Earth, published on Wednesday, found that one million homes in England – home to about 2.4 million people – are already at the highest risk of flooding.
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If countries fail to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, a further 1.89 million people could be pushed into the highest risk category, the research said.
The study also highlighted wider social vulnerabilities, identifying 611,000 people who are least able to prepare for, respond to or recover from flooding due to factors such as low incomes, renting, disability or a lack of insurance.
A government spokesperson said: “This government takes the threat of flooding extremely seriously, pumping additional money into repairing and maintaining our defences.
“This is alongside investing a record £10.5 billion investment to better protect nearly 900,000 properties by 2036.
“We will continue to work closely with Flood Re and industry so that people can access affordable insurance as we build 1.5 million new homes, with our new planning proposals ensuring development should not go ahead where it would be unsafe due to flood risk.”
