The XRP Army has drawn the line: the $3 price mark is now their battlefield. But, at the moment, traders can’t seem to decide if XRP is headed to the moon or back down towards doom.
After hot inflation data dampened jumbo rate cut hopes earlier this week, XRP dropped 6.4% — right down to that pivotal $3.00 mark that could define the crypto asset’s next major move.
On Myriad, a prediction market created by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, traders remain slightly bullish despite the correction. Myriad users give XRP a 63.7% chance of reaching $4 or higher (the moon scenario) versus 36.3% odds of crashing back down to $2 or below (doom).
So who’s right?
XRP, the cryptocurrency created by the founders of payments company Ripple, presents a technical puzzle that explains why traders are currently so divided.
For reference, even at just $3, XRP commands a market capitalization of $181 billion, good for third-largest behind only Bitcoin and Ethereum. And it’s coming off a very recent all-time high of $3.65, which the coin hit less than a month ago. So where is it going next?
For starters, the distance from its current price (the white line in the chart below) to the moon (the green line) and its distance towards doom (the red line) is basically the same: 33.33%. So, odds based on the percentage leap required to hit either scenario is not really a factor right now. It’s going to require a little further digging.
One classic indicator for traders is the Relative Strength Index, or RSI. For XRP, this sits right at 48, just shy of the neutral 50 mark.
RSI measures momentum on a scale of 0-100, where readings above 70 signal overbought conditions (time to sell) and below 30 indicate oversold (time to buy). At 48, we’re in no-man’s land — slightly bearish but not enough to panic. This is what traders call the “decision zone,” where markets pick their next direction.
Going off RSI, under current conditions, market forces are in equilibrium. However, the overall trend is bullish, so this would signal to traders that prices are more likely to maintain momentum and speed unless something else affects the trend.
The Average Directional Index, or ADX, at 28 tells a more decisive story. ADX measures trend strength regardless of direction. Think of it as a speedometer that doesn’t care if you’re going forwards or backwards. Readings above 25 confirm a strong trend exists, and at 28, XRP is definitely trending. This signals to traders that XRP’s upward movement is likely to continue, even if slowly. And, of course, the more the price goes up, the less likely a $2 “doom” scenario becomes.
