The recent updates on the GDP rebasing by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has been misinterpreted in some quarters . Some of the comments are riddled with economic inaccuracies, political exaggerations, and deliberate distortions that risk misleading the public.
Here are some further clarifications to the figures.
1. GDP Rebasing as a Statistical Necessity
GDP rebasing is a standard statistical exercise conducted every 5-10 years to update the base year for calculating national output. This ensures that current data reflects the actual structure and performance of the economy.
* Nigeria last rebased its GDP in 2014 using 2010 as the base year.
* The recent exercise updated the base year to 2019, capturing fast-growing activities such as digital services, and incorporates Pension Funds Administrators, National Social Insurance Trust Funds, National Health Insurance Authority, etc.
* Countries such as Ghana (2021), South Africa, Egypt, and others regularly conduct GDP rebasing in line with international best practices.
GDP rebasing is not a government reform or policy gimmick. It is a statistical recalibration for accurate measurement.
2. Impact of Dollar vs Naira on GDP Growth.
The claim that Nigeria’s GDP “collapsed” from $509 billion in 2014 to $252 billion in 2023. This comparison omits a critical factor; exchange rate variation.
* In 2013, the official exchange rate was approximately ₦157/$1.
* By end of 2023, the exchange rate had exceeded ₦1,400/$1 due to long-overdue exchange rate unification and market realities.
The actual GDP figures are:
* 2013 GDP (₦80.2 trillion) = $509.97 billion
* 2023 GDP (₦234.4 trillion) = $363.34 billion (at ₦645.19/$1)
* 2024 Rebased GDP = ₦372.8 trillion ≈ $252.08 billion (at ₦1,478.96/$1)
In naira terms, Nigeria’s economy has more than tripled in size. The dollar valuation only reflects exchange rate differences. Not a decline in real economic activity.
3. GDP Per Capita, Demographics and Currency
The decline in per capita GDP from $3,009 in 2013 to $1,642 in 2023 is largely the result of:
* Population growth from 171 million to over 220 million.
* Currency devaluation
* Longstanding structural challenges predating the current administration
This statistic should prompt reforms. Not finger-pointing or misinformation.
4. Payment of State Salaries and Fiscal Health
The claim that most state governments “cannot pay salaries” is incorrect.
* FAAC disbursements to states alone rose from ₦335 billion paid in the month of June 2023 to ₦433.25 billion paid in June 2024.
* Over 28 states are currently up to date in salary payments.
* States such as Lagos, Rivers, Borno, and Akwa Ibom have improved their Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) and are investing in capital projects.
5. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Investor Confidence
The assertion that FDI is not flowing and investor confidence is low is unsubstantiated.
* Capital importation in Q1 2024 stood at $3.38 billion, up from $1.09 billion in Q4 2023.
* Nigeria’s re-entry into the JP Morgan Government Bond Index has enhanced international investor confidence.
* The World Bank and IMF project Nigeria’s GDP growth at 3.3-3.5% for 2024, reflecting confidence in ongoing reforms.
6. International Rating
It is worthy to note that international rating agencies had rated government policies and the economy very high in their latest releases.
7. GDP Rebasing is a Policy Tool.
Contrary to some claim, rebasing is not “statistical deception.” It enables:
* Evidence-based policymaking
* More accurate tracking of sectoral contributions
* Better alignment with global data standards.
This process is transparent, credible, and anchored on global statistical standards.
Rebasing is not a solution to social problems, but it helps identify where interventions are most needed.
Without accurate economic measurement, policymaking becomes guesswork. This is why rebasing matters.
Rebasing GDP is a scientific process meant to illuminate the economy, not to obscure it.
