Glassnode analyzed long-term charts covering BTC’s halving cycles and found a repeating pattern despite slight shifts in percentages over time.
Mined Bitcoin in circulation has reached 95% with approximately a century of issuance remaining, further strengthening its long-term scarcity principle. Glassnode data shows that 19.949 million of the 21 million total BTC lifetime supply have already been mined, leaving approximately 1.051 million BTC to be issued until 2138.
Glassnode noted that the milestone emphasizes Bitcoin’s gradual tightening of supply, which makes the token more valuable as halving events slow down issuance. The crypto research platform stated that this moment marks Bitcoin’s transition from a rapidly expanding cryptocurrency to a mature, scarcity-anchored currency network.
According to Glassnode, Bitcoin is now expanding at a much slower rate than gold, as annual inflation falls towards 0.8%. Bitcoiners reportedly view this moment as a turning point, where scarcity becomes a real force in market behavior, rather than just an abstract concept.
Bitcoin’s maximum supply edges closer to fulfillment
The supply architecture is almost fully realized since the first Bitcoin was mined in 2009, according to Glassnode. And the Bitcoin network remains governed by the same rules 16 years later.
At a glance, Clark Moody data shows that Bitcoin’s circulating supply is 19,949,776 BTC out of the maximum supply of 21,000,000 BTC. Approximately 1,049,996 BTC are yet to be issued, while 230.09 BTC are deemed unspendable.
Meanwhile, future issuance is expected to be increasingly slower as block rewards were slashed after the April halving to 3.125 BTC. The block rewards are expected to dwindle until the last coin is created.
According to the Clark Moody dashboard, future BTC supply is expected to hit 99% on January 7, 2035. The total mined supply is projected to reach 99.9% by November 5, 2047, and the final full BTC token is expected to be issued on August 16, 2104. All coins will be issued by July 20, 2138. Kraken’s Thomas Perfumo notes that this slow-release approach strengthens Bitcoin’s appeal as an asset designed to resist inflation and arbitrary supply expansions.
BTC scarcity shapes every halving phase
Glassnode analyzed long-term charts covering BTC’s halving cycles and found a repeating pattern despite slight changes in percentages over time. Historically, BTC issuance drops, supply shrinks, the market expands, and a correction sets in.
BTC gained 3,959% during the 2016 halving event, before its peak in 2017, when it fell by 83%. The 2020 halving event saw Bitcoin rally about 678% into late 2021, then followed by a 77% slump. Meanwhile, the 2024 halving saw BTC price top around $126,160.
Glassnode noted that the repeating pattern across every cycle is clear-cut. Declining issuance always leads to scarcity, which in turn feeds expansion, and the expansion eventually cools off.
Meanwhile, the mining sector bears the most significant impact from this BTC milestone, according to Nansen analyst Jake Kennis. Block reward dropped to 3.125 BTC, and mining difficulty hit an ATH. However, Mid-sized miners are also under a lot of pressure to improve efficiency and reduce costs.
Kennis said the industry is transitioning from block reward-dependent miners to transaction-fee-dependent miners. He believes this creates pressure on miners to consolidate or seek efficiency gains.
Professionals polled by Glassnode also agreed that the milestone is not a direct price catalyst, but its timing matters. The milestone reportedly comes as ETF markets expand, regulatory frameworks mature, and corporations explore Bitcoin treasury. However, Perfumo describes the asset as operating with the scarcity and certainty of authenticity expected from a masterpiece like the Mona Lisa.
Glassnode noted that passing the 95% mark confirms the durability of BTC’s fixed-supply model. The remaining issuance stretches more than 100 years, and scarcity is expected to play a larger role in the market as each halving pushes new supply even lower.
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