The government’s woken up to quite the new year hangover with the publication of 2025’s small boat data – which reveals the number of migrants crossing the Channel increased by more than 4,500 people compared to 2024.
For a prime minister who made “smashing the gangs” such a central pledge during the general election campaign, the numbers are politically toxic.
Although, frankly, given the trajectory of the statistics in the first part of the year, the situation could have been even worse – with the figures tracking largely above the record number of migrant arrivals in 2022 until bad weather hit in the late autumn.
But after 18 months in power, Sir Keir Starmer’s entering another year without making any real progress on an issue which is hugely important to many voters.
This seeming impotence – from successive governments – to stop the small boats and close asylum hotels has certainly fuelled the rapid rise in support for Reform UK.
Not surprisingly, Nigel Farage has leapt on today’s data to claim “smash the gangs is a complete disaster. One in, one out is a farce and the numbers have been huge.”
In a recent hardening of mainstream policy positioning, both Reform UK and the Conservatives now argue that anyone who arrived in the country illegally should be barred from claiming asylum – and that the UK needs to leave the European Convention on Human Rights in order to deliver that, and increase the number of deportations.
“Small boat crossings are the inevitable product of a system that guarantees entry and obstructs removal,” said Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp.
“As long as the ECHR sits at the centre of our asylum system, illegal immigration is effectively hardwired in.”
As we saw with the PM’s New Year’s message on the economy, his approach has been to argue he understands people’s anger – but to insist that new policies only just coming to fruition will soon start to make a big difference.
The Home Office sent us a strident statement saying “the number of small boat crossings are shameful and the British people deserve better. This Government is taking action.”
It’s certainly true that many of the catalogue of measures announced by ministers have only just come into force – or are yet to do so.
The borders bill, finally passed in December, gives the police new counter-terror-style powers to try and tackle the gangs.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s Danish-inspired asylum reforms, announced in November, aim to make the asylum system less generous – and therefore less of an incentive to migrants.
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She wants to deter people from coming to the UK with plans to make refugee status temporary, not permanent, to restrict asylum seekers’ benefits, and to require 20 years’ residency before granting permanent settlement.
The plans also seek to make deportations easier.
Rather than leaving the ECHR, the government is working with other European countries to try and reform it from within.
The one in one out deal with France began over the summer, and sees the UK sending back small boat migrants back across the Channel in exchange for people already in the French system.
Thus far it’s been small scale – with fewer than 200 people deported, and several attempting to get back to the UK even after being returned.
And while ministers regularly celebrate the fruits of closer working with their European partners – a long-awaited French promise to allow the police to intervene to stop the boats in the water looks to be on ice once again, with unions reportedly resisting the order over health and safety concerns.
After so many false promises and failed schemes – the most notorious of which, the Rwanda plan, cost £700 million and deported just four volunteers – it’s not surprising the British electorate are sceptical about government policies in this area.
Sir Keir and Shabana Mahmood are hoping their multi-faceted, internationally collaborative approach will finally start to pay dividends in the new year.
Frustrated voters expect resolutions – and they’re prepared to punish politicians who don’t deliver on their promises.
