China’s exports to the Middle East and Africa grew by 61 percent between 2019 and 2024
The Middle East and Africa are emerging as a strategic crossroads in the new era of global trade, forging stronger connections with both Asia and Europe.
In its latest report, Citi explained that global trade is undergoing a fundamental transformation, driven by tariff volatility, artificial intelligence adoption and the continued shift toward multipolar, regionalized supply chains.
Despite significant headwinds, businesses demonstrated remarkable resilience, adapting rapidly to policy shifts while maintaining strategic focus on diversification and working capital optimization.
Amid the shifting global trade landscape, the Middle East and Africa have seen a dramatic 52 percent increase in shipments from North and East Asia, highlighting a significant pivot in trade flows. This growing importance is underscored by China’s deepening relationships in the area, particularly with Saudi Arabia. The data suggests the region is successfully positioning itself as a vital and growing hub for international commerce and supply chains.
The report reveals that shipments from North and East Asia to the Middle East and Africa increased by 52 percent between 2019 and 2024, while trade flows from the Middle East and Africa to Europe rose by 27 percent in the same period. Notably, China’s exports to the Middle East and Africa grew by 61 percent between 2019 and 2024.
Despite global trends, only 6 percent of suppliers in the Middle East view rising input costs as their most important challenge, suggesting different regional cost pressures.
The report reveals that while U.S. tariffs rose to approximately 16.8 percent from 2.4 percent before the change in U.S. Administration, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index shows supply chain pressures remained subdued and near pre-pandemic levels. Companies successfully navigated initial tariff shocks through strategic inventory management, supplier diversification and accelerated nearshoring initiatives.
Analysis of goods reveals a complex reorganization of global trade. South Asia & ASEAN emerged as major winners, with a 44 percent increase in shipments from North & East Asia. Latin America has become deeply integrated into both Asia- and North America-linked supply chains, with exports to South Asia & ASEAN surging 82 percent, the single largest increase globally.
Meanwhile, the U.S. diversified its import base, with shipments from South Asia & ASEAN up 50 percent and from Latin America up 43 percent, both exceeding the 32 percent growth from North & East Asia.
Read: Saudi trade surplus jumps 26.3 percent in Q4 2025; non-oil exports rise as China leads imports
The report also examines how AI is creating a once-in-a-generation capital expenditure supercycle in data centers, with Citi Research estimating $7.75 trillion in global AI-related capex by 2030. Trade finance is playing an increasingly critical role in this ecosystem, with solutions ranging from supply chain finance to structured receivables programs supporting the complex, capital-intensive nature of AI data center development.
AI adoption in trade finance accelerated dramatically, with 36 percent of large corporates now using AI tools – an 18 percent increase from the previous year.
“Technology is fundamentally reengineering how trade finance operates. AI-powered intelligent document processing enables exceptionally high accuracy rates and reduces processing to just minutes. Through a pilot of blockchain-based conditional trade payments, we have seen the potential for an evolution from standard paper-based guarantees to near 24/7 digital execution and automated settlement,” said Adoniro Cestari, Global Head of Trade and Working Capital at Citi.
“These types of innovations, combined with structuring expertise, help companies unlock trapped liquidity and optimize working capital while supporting more efficient supply chains and the massive AI infrastructure buildout underway globally,” Cestari added.
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