Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, said he expects Bitcoin (BTC) to climb into seven-figure territory within the next five years.
Speaking on CNBC’s Halftime Report on Wednesday, Sigel said Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory remains strongly bullish.
“Bitcoin going up for us is the base case. We think this asset is going to reach a million dollars over the next several years,” he said.
Sigel later clarified that he expects Bitcoin to hit the $1 million mark within “half a decade.” He compared Bitcoin’s growing adoption to the evolution of the video game industry, which expanded from a niche activity for younger users into mainstream entertainment embraced across generations.
“It’s going to be like the video game industry, where 30 years ago it was just kids playing video games, now Elon Musk plays video games,” Sigel said.
His comments are consistent with VanEck’s broader long-term outlook, which projects Bitcoin could eventually reach $2.9 million by 2050 under the firm’s base-case scenario.
Bitcoin remains highly cyclical despite bullish outlook
Despite his optimistic forecast, Sigel stressed that Bitcoin remains a highly cyclical and volatile asset, meaning its path toward $1 million is unlikely to be smooth.
“There are no bailouts in Bitcoin, so it’s going to be cycles along the way,” he said, referring to the absence of a central authority capable of supporting markets during sharp downturns.
“We now have the first central bank adding Bitcoin to its reserves, which reinforces the idea that this is a major long-term trend,” Matthew Sigel said, while cautioning that the asset is still likely to experience significant volatility along the way.
Near-term market sentiment remains cautious
Discussing Bitcoin’s short-term outlook, Sigel noted that the cryptocurrency’s correlation with the Nasdaq has climbed to its highest level in five years, suggesting that recent price movements are being driven largely by broader macroeconomic conditions.
Still, he said there are reasons for optimism at current price levels. According to Sigel, derivatives markets are not showing the kind of excessive speculative activity typically associated with overheated rallies.
“What keeps us encouraged even at the current levels is that we’re not seeing the froth in the derivatives markets,” he said, adding that much of the recent move appears to be fueled by short covering — a sign that overall market positioning remains relatively bearish.
Matthew Sigel is not alone in forecasting major long-term gains for Bitcoin. Similar bullish projections have been made by analysts at Bernstein, Matt Hougan, Samson Mow and Jack Dorsey, among others.
Meanwhile, ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, projects Bitcoin could trade at around $300,000 in a bear-case scenario by 2030, rise to roughly $710,000 in its base case and potentially reach $1.5 million under a bullish outlook, according to the firm’s Big Ideas 2025 model.
Not everyone shares such optimistic expectations, however. Ray Dalio has acknowledged Bitcoin’s potential as a store of value but questioned whether it can realistically evolve into a global reserve asset, citing regulatory concerns and sovereign currency risks.
At the same time, longtime gold advocate Peter Schiff has argued that Bitcoin lacks intrinsic value and is unlikely to replace traditional safe-haven assets such as gold, casting doubt on predictions that BTC could eventually reach seven-figure price levels.
