Another week has ended, and it is also the end of the month, which means a bigger batch of Bitcoin and Ether options contracts are expiring while spot markets cool off again.
Around 115,500 Bitcoin options contracts will expire on Friday, Feb. 27, with a notional value of roughly $7.8 billion. This event is much larger than usual because it is the end of the month, so there could be a little volatility on spot markets.
Crypto markets have seen a little daylight with a mid-week lift, but total capitalization has remained the same as gains are starting to erode again, and zooming out shows they’re still in a downtrend.
This week’s batch of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 0.76, meaning that there are more expiring calls (longs) than puts (shorts). Max pain is around $75,000, according to Coinglass, which is way above current spot prices, so many will be out of the money on expiry.
Open interest (OI), or the value or number of Bitcoin options contracts yet to expire, remains highest at $60,000 with $1.5 billion and $1.1 billion at $50,000 strike prices on Deribit as bearish bets increase. Total BTC options OI across all exchanges has been climbing this month and has reached $37 billion.
“In a continuous downtrend in the existing range, it’s not a surprise to see ongoing downside plays (protection and bearish) on BTC,” said Deribit this week.
“Call OI dominates across both assets, with BTC carrying the significantly larger notional weight into settlement.”
Derivatives provider Greeks Live said the expiration of options accounts for 20% of total open interest, totaling nearly $9 billion, with Bitcoin’s position share reaching a multi-year peak.
“The market remains firmly in bear territory. Currently, the crypto space lacks both fresh capital inflows and clear catalysts, with pessimistic narratives dominating social media. The market bottom likely remains elusive.”
In addition to today’s oversized batch of Bitcoin options, around 477,000 Ethereum contracts are also expiring, with a notional value of $963 million, max pain at $2,200, and a put/call ratio of 0.77. Total ETH options OI across all exchanges is around $6.6 billion. This brings the total notional value of crypto options expiries to around $9 billion.
Markets are back in the red again today with total cap dropping 1.3% below $2.4 trillion. Bitcoin failed to hold above $68,000 and dipped back below $67,000 during early trading in Asia on Friday morning.
Ethereum is teetering around the $2,000 level and is likely to fall below it again as any hopes of a relief rally dwindle.
