Join the newsletter that everyone in finance secretly reads. 1M+ subscribers, 100% free.
The Labor Department will release its closely watched monthly employment data on Thursday – a day early because of the Fourth of July holiday. The report is expected to show that the economy created about 125,000 jobs in June, or slightly fewer than in May, and that the unemployment rate continued to hold steady at 4.2%.
Before that data, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) latest meeting could set off sparks of its own. Policymakers’ outlook for interest rates this year is more divided than it has been since the central bank began publishing its “dot plot” forecasts in 2012. Nearly half of the voting members don’t see any rate cuts happening this year – while others still expect two. But what happens with the US job market could alter their thinking. After all, the Fed’s got two jobs: keeping inflation low and stable and achieving maximum employment. Until now, the country’s payroll data has appeared pretty solid, at least on first glance. But look closer, and job growth has been slowing, opportunities have been narrowing, and some pockets of the economy have been struggling.
Those two releases – and the ongoing uncertainty about US tariff plans – could put investors on edge all over again. And with the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq closing early for the holiday weekend on Thursday afternoon, the thinned-out trading volumes could leave the market awash with volatility instead.
The ceasefire between Iran and Israel triggered major market moves and boosted investor sentiment. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 reached record highs, and the oil price plunged. Meanwhile, NATO’s 32 member nations agreed to increase their national defense spending to 5% of their economic output by 2035 to ensure protection from the US in the event of an attack.
A brand-new trade deal between the US and China put rare earths – those critical minerals used in everything from smartphones to fighter jets – front and center. China agreed to resume shipments of these prized materials, and the US pledged to lift certain export curbs. The agreement signaled a cooling in tariff tensions between the world’s two biggest economies.
Your crypto wallet could soon help you snag a federal home loan – that is, as long as it’s held on a US-regulated, centralized exchange. Until now, borrowers have had to convert their coins into cash – incurring taxes in the process – to prove they had the funds. But under the proposed new rules, bitcoin and other digital assets could be automatically counted.
Xiaomi’s share price hit an all-new record after the Chinese firm racked up 289,000 pre-orders for its new $35,000 electric SUV in just an hour. The Hong Kong-listed smartphone maker’s new EV aims to compete with the Tesla Model Y in China. The speedy sales took some of the shine off Tesla in what was supposed to be a big week for the US EV maker, as it launched its autonomous cars in Texas.
