Non-traditional metrics may provide a better way of anticipating a burstring market bubble, reports The Economist:
“Surges in Googling do a much better job than valuations at forecasting an imminent fall, as the chart’s third column shows. In each case the price of the stock, basket, fund or cryptocurrency dropped considerably over the 12 months following the peak in internet searches. Moreover, for the ARKK fund, bitcoin, GameStop and SPACs, prices spiked at almost exactly the same time as Googling did.”
Wholesale giant Costco sues Trump administration for a “full refund” on import duties the company says it paid this year under global tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. The Supreme Court is expected to rule on strikes down Trump’s tariffs, more than $90 billion of refunds could be owed. A decision by the Supreme Court on the legality of the Trump-imposed tariffs is expected early next year.
The city of San Francisco filed a lawsuit against some of the nation’s top food manufacturers over ultraprocessed foods. The lawsuit argues that ultraprocessed foods are linked to diseases such as Type 2 diabetes, fatty liver disease and cancer.
US retail sales excluding autos were up +4.1% on Black Friday, November 28 compared to Black Friday 2024, according to preliminary insights from Mastercard SpendingPulse data. The analytics measure in-store and online retail sales, representing all payment types, and is not adjusted for inflation.
The rebound above 4% for two key funding-market liquidity rates could be a sign of tighter monetary conditions ahead, according to some analysts. “This, to us, looks like a repeat of the dynamics seen at October month-end,” said Sam Zief, global macro strategist and head of global FX strategy at JP Morgan Private Bank. Although the Secured Overnight Financing Rate is above 4% again, it remains well below its late-October peak. Nonehtless, it’s “a sign of tighter funding conditions than investors have become accustomed to in recent years, but not a sign of widespread stress,” he advised.
