Global macro analyst Luke Gromen has adopted a more cautious near-term outlook on Bitcoin, even flagging a potential decline toward the $40,000 level as one of several possible scenarios in 2026. He argues that shifting macro conditions and changing investor narratives have left Bitcoin increasingly exposed.
Speaking on the RiskReversal podcast, Gromen reaffirmed his broader belief in the debasement trade — the idea that governments will erode the real value of fiat currencies through inflation. However, he suggested that gold and select equities are currently expressing that thesis more effectively than Bitcoin. “Basically everything but gold and the dollar are likely to get waylaid,” he said.
The debasement trade centers on expectations that investors will move away from fiat currencies toward scarce or real assets such as gold, commodities, and Bitcoin, which are viewed as better long-term stores of value.
Gromen turns more cautious on BTC
Gromen pointed to several technical and narrative warning signs, including Bitcoin’s inability to set new highs against gold, a break below key moving averages, and growing discussion around quantum computing risks. Together, he said, these factors have worsened Bitcoin’s near-term risk-reward profile.
For longtime followers, the shift is notable. Gromen has historically grouped Bitcoin with gold as part of a broader bet on fiscal dominance, rising debt-to-GDP ratios, and the eventual inflation of real liabilities.
In contrast, he now describes Bitcoin as a position that can be tactically reduced, even while remaining structurally bullish on the long-term case for fiat currency debasement.
Macro uncertainty and quantum concerns
Gromen’s remarks come as broader macro uncertainty, valuation concerns, and renewed discussion of quantum risk weigh on Bitcoin sentiment.
Cautious macro outlooks are becoming more common, with some analysts questioning whether Bitcoin can maintain gains following exchange-traded fund inflows, especially amid concerns around the AI sector and softer US labor and consumer data.
At the same time, the narrative around quantum computing has shifted in some circles from a distant theoretical threat to a medium-term risk, even as most cryptographers maintain that practical attacks on Bitcoin’s cryptography remain far off.
Bitcoin analysts push back
Bitcoin-focused analysts have pushed back on Gromen’s near-term bearish stance, arguing that relying on broken moving averages and relative underperformance versus gold is a classic case of selling into weakness rather than identifying a market top.
Onchain analyst Checkmate argued that much of Gromen’s case appears to be driven by narratives circulating on X rather than by onchain or market data. Meanwhile, Troy Cross, a fellow at the Bitcoin Policy Institute, characterized the view as a trade on perceptions of quantum risk, not on any imminent or credible threat to Bitcoin’s cryptography.
Flows, debasement, and the long view
Market data paints a more nuanced picture than outright pessimism. After a notable wave of outflows in November, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have returned to modest net inflows in December, suggesting that headline demand has steadied even as macro commentary has turned more cautious.
The debasement thesis that Gromen helped bring into the mainstream continues to anchor many long-term bullish cases for Bitcoin alongside gold.
For now, his shift appears less like a rejection of Bitcoin’s role in the debasement trade and more like a tactical pullback — a signal that even macro-aligned supporters are willing to dial down exposure when narratives and technicals turn unfavorable.
