ARLINGTON — On Thursday, the roads fairly clean and the sun shining, the Rangers took the first opportunity to officially introduce MacKenzie Gore as the newest member of their rotation. We arrived with burning questions. And good thing, because Gore, it turns out, is pleasant but reserved. Then again, he can mime his way through the season if he wants, if he makes the starting rotation the best in the American League.
The Rangers gave up a lot, at least in terms of quantity, to acquire the soon-to-be-27-year-old lefty to stack behind — and learn from — Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi. The idea being the starting rotation is the team’s best asset; might as well strengthen a strength, especially when options and resources are limited elsewhere. It makes sense. So, to that burning question: Does Gore give the Rangers the best starting rotation in the AL?
To which Chris Young responded with one of his own: Does it really need to be?
“I don’t think we have to be the best,” Young said and was by no means managing expectations. “What we have to be is a really, really good rotation. But we need to play great defense. We need to run the bases well. We need to be a really good offense, and we need to have a really good pitching staff. If we do that, we’re going to be in a position to be a playoff team and contend for a World Series.
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“We can’t have any fatal flaws. We can’t have a team that is good in three areas and terrible in another. We have to be a complete team, and so it’s not necessarily striving to be the best in every one of those categories. It’s about collectively being a solid team all around that day in, day out can beat you in a number of different ways.”
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Long but spot-on way of saying this: If the host of Gen Z members on the roster, particularly on the offensive side, don’t make progress, the only titles the Rangers will be competing for are vanity titles. Chris Young is not about vanity.
That said, it’s worth wondering how Gore could impact the rotation and elevate the overall team. And also how the Rangers should impact him.
Gore should get a lift from pitching behind deGrom and Eovaldi. He was the No. 1 starter in Washington, which meant he often faced off against the best in the league. As a result, he got the third-worst run support in baseball among the 65 pitchers with at least 150 innings. The Nationals averaged 2.03 runs per game when he was on the mound. Jack Leiter, who became the Rangers No. 3 starter for most of the year, received, on average, almost a run more per game.
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He should also get a lift from a better defense behind him than the 29th-ranked unit in Washington last year. He should also benefit from Globe Life Field, which favors lefties and fly ball pitchers, of which Gore qualifies on both counts. He even smiled slightly when that was recited back to him Thursday.
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“You could say all those things could help,” Gore said. “But at the end of the day, I’ve got to go out there and execute and do my job. You control what you can control. And if I do my job, good things will happen.”
Theoretically, he could also benefit from the Rangers’ recent track record of success in identifying pitchers capable of taking a step forward and helping them realize that. If Gore could find a little higher first-pitch-strike percentage, the step up may be significant. When ahead of hitters, he held them to a .468 OPS last year, in the top third among starters. For context, deGrom allowed a .483 OPS in those situations.
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So what could that do for the Rangers’ rotation? Well, look, health is a huge unknown, especially with the top two starters being in their mid-30s and having long injury histories, and a potential lack of depth options. But, according to Fangraphs, pitching projections, a healthy Rangers rotation is a top-tier rotation. Adding Gore gives the Rangers’ projected rotation a 11.5 fWAR, which ranks fifth in the AL, but only a tenth of a win behind Tampa Bay and less than a win behind Toronto. According to the projections, Detroit and, more notably, Seattle, are more significantly ahead of the field.
Back to Young’s point. It’s not about having the best rotation; it’s about having the best team. Then again, having a top rotation is like feeding a cold with chicken soup; it might not help, but it couldn’t hurt.
“Obviously I’ve got a pitching background, and I subscribe to starting pitching being the key to success,” Young said. “It gives you a chance to win. It sets an expectation for the team on a daily basis. When players come through the clubhouse doors, our players are going to know we expect to win today. I think more importantly, that’s what this rotation is going to allow us to do. Now, it’s up to us as an organization to get the best out of each of these players, both on the pitching side and the position player side.”
About that, Fangraphs on Thursday released its first ZIPs system standings projections for the year. Fangraphs may believe that Gore will help the rotation, but it’s apparently not buying the offense. Fangraphs projects the Rangers to finish 80-82.
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Then again, a year ago at this time, Fangraphs projected Baltimore to win the AL East and Toronto to finish last.
Come February, projections don’t matter. Only execution does.
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