The Critical Threats Project’s Africa File provides regular analysis and assessments of major developments regarding state and nonstate actors’ activities in Africa that undermine regional stability and threaten US personnel and interests.
[1] https://x.com/TazamaRDC_Infos/status/1955021576866324801; https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1713659/politique/est-de-la-rdc-violents-affrontements-entre-larmee-et-le-m23; https://beto dot cd/actualite/la-rdc-a-la-une/2025/08/12/sud-kivu-les-fardc-et-wazalendo-reprennent-plusieurs-localites-aux-mains-du-m23.html/193206; https://www.radiookapi dot net/2025/08/12/actualite/securite/sud-kivu-mouvements-de-troupes-du-m23-afc-les-fardc-et-les-wazalendo; https://x.com/HeritierBarak/status/1955301038820347975; https://www.radiookapi dot net/2025/08/09/actualite/securite/des-affrontements-entre-le-m23-et-les-wazalendo-font-une-dizaine-de; https://actualite dot cd/2025/08/10/rdc-walungu-reprise-des-combats-entre-afcm23-et-wazalendo-mulamba; https://x.com/HeritierBarak/status/1954635022234968183; https://x.com/HeritierBarak/status/1954873797854597437; https://www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/20250810-rdc-reprise-des-combats-entre-le-groupe-afc-m23-et-l-arme-malgr-la-signature-du-cessez-le-feu; https://x.com/HeritierBarak/status/1954632828718620851; https://x.com/wembi_steve/status/1954498864775372952; https://radiomaendeleo dot org/sud-kivu-combats-intenses-sur-deux-fronts-a-walungu-et-kabare-ce-jeudi; https://www.mediacongo dot net/article-actualite-153783_walungu_l_agglomeration_de_kaniola_tombe_aux_mains_de_l_afc_m23.html; https://x.com/michombero/status/1953731275103117778; https://x.com/wembi_steve/status/1953765297971695998; https://x.com/KivuMorningPost/status/1953737057248932257; https://x.com/Kivuinfo24/status/1953680342365196747
[2] https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1713659/politique/est-de-la-rdc-violents-affrontements-entre-larmee-et-le-m23; https://x.com/KivuMorningPost/status/1955290152521052265; https://x.com/TazamaRDC_Infos/status/1954812711289643331
[3] https://x.com/TazamaRDC_Infos/status/1954812711289643331; https://x.com/wembi_steve/status/1954523055381774595
[4] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1946547313062584727
[5] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1946547313062584727
[6] https://x.com/DKabibashizi90/status/1954515686656504093; https://x.com/HeritierBarak/status/1954632828718620851; https://www.radiookapi dot net/2025/08/09/actualite/securite/des-affrontements-entre-le-m23-et-les-wazalendo-font-une-dizaine-de; https://www.opinion-info dot cd/societe/2025/08/09/walungu-lafc-m23-tue-plusieurs-civils-avec-des-drones; https://x.com/DrMumbogoSV/status/1954397256775262571
[7] https://x.com/Patiricye/status/1943810046946947123
[8] https://www.rba.co dot rw/post/Amafoto-Reba-imbunda-za-rutura-FARDC-na-FDLR-barashishije-mu-Rwanda; https://x.com/war_noir/status/1885159634765255152; https://x.com/HammerOfWar5/status/1885085090151023079; https://x.com/HammerOfWar5/status/1943356040356974942; https://x.com/Dachronica/status/1900488355755745468; https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/defence-news/air/congolese-rebels-capture-belarusian-attack-uav
[9] https://x.com/Katsuva_R/status/1872573919942656499; https://x.com/afrikarabia/status/1871914528981844059; https://x.com/kabumba_justin/status/1871907746536120419; https://x.com/congotask/status/1944135160863072372
[10] https://www.rba.co dot rw/post/Amafoto-Reba-imbunda-za-rutura-FARDC-na-FDLR-barashishije-mu-Rwanda; https://x.com/war_noir/status/1885159634765255152; https://x.com/HammerOfWar5/status/1885085090151023079; https://x.com/kivunews24/status/1944070628388065508; https://x.com/M23_TWIRWANEHO/status/1944060682498129950
[11] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1946547313062584727
[13] https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/m23-rebel-group-says-no-invitation-received-doha-peace-talks-with-congo-2025-08-07; https://www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/20250808-discussions-directes-entre-la-rdc-et-le-groupe-afc-m23-qu-en-est-il-du-rendez-vous-de-doha; https://actualite dot cd/2025/08/07/rdc-afcm23-les-discussions-directes-ne-vont-pas-debuter-ce-8-aout-doha-la-mediation; https://www.mediacongo dot net/article-actualite-153762_pas_de_discussions_directes_a_doha_ni_kinshasa_ni_l_afc_m23_n_a_fait_le_deplacement_de_qatar.html; https://7sur7 dot cd/2025/08/08/dialogue-direct-entre-kinshasa-et-le-m23-rendez-vous-manque-doha-ce-vendredi
[15] https://www.voanews.com/a/dr-congo-rwanda-peace-talks-canceled-/7901906.html
[16] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2025/446
[17] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/africa-file-march-20-2025-qatari-ceasefire-in-drc-saf-khartoum-rsf-attacks-south-sudan-al-shabaab-ramadan-offensive-tigray-amhara-escalates-russia-ethiopia-navy-burkina-massacres#DRC; https://docs.un.org/en/s/2025/446
[18] https://x.com/FARDC_Info/status/1955290613105975416
[19] https://x.com/FARDC_Info/status/1955290613105975416
[20] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1954954876980494444
[21] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1954954876980494444
[22] https://x.com/LawrenceKanyuka/status/1955250660825317656; https://x.com/KivuMorningPost/status/1955283188130930984
[23] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/africa-file-february-13-2025-saf-announces-government-plan-and-russian-naval-base-drc-concedes-to-direct-talks-with-m23-turkeys-growing-defense-partnerships-in-africa#DRC; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/africa-file-february-27-2025-saf-advances-west-toward-darfur-m23-and-drc-reset-as-pressure-grows-rwanda-issp-transnational-threat-al-shabaab-central-somalia-offensive#DRC
[24] https://x.com/sergesindani01/status/1940381785696739372; https://x.com/TshibamboCris/status/1940384295874621566; https://x.com/afrcong24h7jrs/status/1940479637865615366; https://x.com/ElianaMuza86758/status/1940395164935352480
[25] https://www.radiookapi dot net/2025/08/12/actualite/securite /sud-kivu-mouvements-de-troupes-du-m23-afc-les-fardc-et-les-wazalendo; https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1713659/politique/est-de-la-rdc-violents-affrontements-entre-larmee-et-le-m23; https://x.com/KivuMorningPost/status/1955290152521052265; https://x.com/TazamaRDC_Infos/status/1954812711289643331
[26] https://information.tv5monde.com/afrique/video/guerre-en-rd-congo-tensions-sur-le-terrain-malgre-les-pourparlers-de-paix-2780852#Echobox=1751971397; https://kivumorningpost dot com/2025/07/09/rdc-twirwaneho-alerte-sur-le-renfort-des-fardc-par-les-fdnb-pour-des-frappes-aeriennes-a-minembwe; https://x.com/kivunews24/status/1941553040378692061; https://x.com/Kivuinfo24/status/1941325824642183395; https://www.africansecurityanalysis.org/updates/asa-security-update-eastern-drc-and-rwanda-border-escalation
[27] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/africa-file-february-13-2025-saf-announces-government-plan-and-russian-naval-base-drc-concedes-to-direct-talks-with-m23-turkeys-growing-defense-partnerships-in-africa#_edn1415989f54bd1ec539540885cf53725340fc169cdd9f0d686c196ad850616541ref53; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/africa-file-february-27-2025-saf-advances-west-toward-darfur-m23-and-drc-reset-as-pressure-grows-rwanda-issp-transnational-threat-al-shabaab-central-somalia-offensive#DRC; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/africa-file-march-13-2025-looming-civil-wars-in-ethiopia-south-sudan-threaten-to-plunge-horn-into-crisis-renewed-peace-talks-in-drc-as-m23-advances#DRC; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/africa-file-march-20-2025-qatari-ceasefire-in-drc-saf-khartoum-rsf-attacks-south-sudan-al-shabaab-ramadan-offensive-tigray-amhara-escalates-russia-ethiopia-navy-burkina-massacres#DRC;
[29] https://acleddata.com/update/africa-overview-april-2025#keytrends2
[30] https://www.youtube.com/live/07n5cMNW4cQ; https://x.com/UrugwiroVillage/status/1941256612779307310; https://www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/20250705-est-de-la-rdc-pour-kagame-les-ngociations–washington-et-doha-sont-les-deux-faces-d-une-mme-pice; https://x.com/StanysBujakera/status/1941155343590969816; https://x.com/KivuMorningPost/status/1941167863487733839; https://x.com/KadimaYassin/status/1941133083882721375; https://x.com/SMwanamilongo1/status/1941134645812175202; https://x.com/KadimaYassin/status/1941131096760136155; https://x.com/KadimaYassin/status/1941133083882721375; https://apnews.com/article/congo-rwanda-peace-deal-m23-us-c4dd6f6eea17be5df5f59b2a00117191
[32] https://docs.un.org/en/s/2025/446
[33] https://www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/20250810-mali-arrestations-de-militaires-dont-deux-gnraux-souponns-de-vouloir-dstabiliser-la-transition;Mali detains two dozen soldiers over alleged coup plot against junta; https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1713209/politique/tentative-de-destabilisation-au-mali-une-vague-darrestations-dans-larmee/
[34] https://www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/20250810-mali-arrestations-de-militaires-dont-deux-gnraux-souponns-de-vouloir-dstabiliser-la-transition; https://x.com/sergedanielinfo/status/1954676724630794726
[36] https://x.com/WerbCharlie/status/1954673187142480148; https://www.barrons.com/news/mali-arrests-dozens-of-soldiers-over-alleged-bid-to-topple-junta-10665d29?refsec=topics_afp-news
[37] https://x.com/WerbCharlie/status/1955396129170071884; https://x.com/WerbCharlie/status/1955396129170071884; https://www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/20250813-mali-l-ancien-premier-ministre-choguel-maga-en-garde–vue
[38] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn8lp80eqj0o
[43] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn8lp80eqj0o; https://apnews.com/article/mali-goita-bill-transition-cf66d83bc3d84b626daab408e2e4240a
[46] https://zagazola.org/index.php/breaking-news/tensions-in-mali-s-ruling-junta-amid-reported-arrests-of-senior-officers; https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1710697/politique/au-mali-letat-major-strategique-de-sadio-camara-puissant-ministre-de-la-defense
[48] https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1645; https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66300870
[53] https://www.theafricareport.com/317101/russia-africa-summit-assimi-goita-and-ibrahim-traore-show-support-for-vladimir-putin; https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78nw1xy21no
[54] https://www.jeuneafrique.com/165872/politique/mali-retour-sur-la-bataille-d-cisive-de-konna; https://www.afriqueinfo dot net/2019/01/interview-exclusive-lieutenant-colonel-abass-dembele; https://www.lexpress.fr/monde/afrique/les-forces-speciales-maliennes-laboratoire-d-une-armee-en-renovation_1222747.html; https://malijet dot com/actualte_dans_les_regions_du_mali/rebellion_au_nord_du_mali/62973-guerre-contre-le-terrorisme-les-dessous-de-la-bataille-de-konna.html; http://news.abamako dot com/h/15171.html
[59] https://sudantribune.com/article303829
[60] https://t.me/ClashReport/53883 ; https://www.tagpress.net/149652/خسائر-فادحة-بصفوف-الدعم-السريع-في-الف/
[61] https://sudantribune.com/article303827/
[62] https://www.darfur24.com/2025/08/12/–22—–/
[63] https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2025/07/14/au-soudan-l-armee-repousse-une-attaque-des-paramilitaires-des-forces-de-soutien-rapide-a-el-fasher_6621149_3212.html ; https://www.tagpress.net/149652/خسائر-فادحة-بصفوف-الدعم-السريع-في-الف/
[64] https://www.alaraby.co.uk/politics/———
[67] https://www.rfi.fr/en/africa/20250810-investigation-uncovers-rsf-military-base-hidden-in-libyan-desert ; https://www.tagpress.net/149471/543-مركبة-قتالية-للاستيلاء-على-الفاشر/ ; https://sudantribune.com/article303519/
[68] https://www.tagpress.net/149427/الفاشر-تنتصر-كما-العادة-وتصد-الهجوم-رق/ ; https://www.darfur24.com/2025/08/05/الحركة-الشعبية-قواتنا-غير-موجودة-في-ال/
[70] https://t.me/marek55500/2207 ; https://www.tagpress.net/149427/الفاشر-تنتصر-كما-العادة-وتصد-الهجوم-رق
[71] https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/07/1165340
[72] https://sudantribune.com/article303837/ ; https://www.wfp.org/news/food-and-nutrition-crisis-deepens-across-sudan-famine-identified-additional-areas
[73] https://sudantribune.com/article303837; https://sudantribune.com/article303940
[74] https://www.wfp.org/stories/wfp-calls-humanitarian-access-sudanese-city-grapples-starvation
[75] https://www.darfur24.com/2025/08/12/فرار-500-شخص-من-مخيم-أبشوك-للنازحين-قُرب-ا/ ; https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/08/1165637; https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/sudan/sudan-humanitarian-access-snapshot-al-fasher-and-zamzam-8-april-2025; https://www.youtube.com/shorts/YiU5ycdV0ZU ; https://www.wfp.org/stories/wfp-calls-humanitarian-access-sudanese-city-grapples-starvation
[76] https://www.youtube.com/shorts/YiU5ycdV0ZU ; https://www.wfp.org/stories/wfp-calls-humanitarian-access-sudanese-city-grapples-starvation ; https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2025/8/13/cholera-outbreak-devastates-sudan-refugee-camps
[77] https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/crime_against_humanity; https://trialinternational.org/topics-post/crimes-against-humanity
[78] https://sudantribune.com/article303508/
[79] https://casebook.icrc.org/a_to_z/glossary/child-soldiers; https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/ihl-treaties/api-1977/article-77; https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/ihl-treaties/apii-1977/article-4; https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/ihl-treaties/crc-1989
[80] https://www.icrc.org/en/document/protection-hospitals-during-armed-conflicts-what-law-says; https://www.csis.org/analysis/starvation-crimes-and-international-law-new-era; https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2024/06/using-starvation-weapon-war-sudan-must-stop-un-experts; https://www.msf.org/besieged-attacked-starved-mass-atrocities-el-fasher; https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn7d84k3r43o; https://www.wfp.org/stories/wfp-calls-humanitarian-access-sudanese-city-grapples-starvation
[81] https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/aug/07/genocide-sudan-zamzam-camp-timeline
[82] https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/aug/07/genocide-sudan-zamzam-camp-timeline
[83] https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/aug/07/genocide-sudan-zamzam-camp-timeline
[84] https://www.globalr2p.org/publications/urgent-alert-on-the-risk-of-genocide-in-north-darfur-sudan; https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/04/1162211; https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c511vgzvl2eo; https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqv5nvq69lwo
[85] https://unric.org/en/international-law-understanding-justice-in-times-of-war
[86] https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/documents/ atrocity-crimes/Doc.1_Conventiononthe PreventionandPunishmentofthe CrimeofGenocide.pdf; https://www.un.org/en/genocide-prevention/definition; https://www.justice.gov/archives/jm/criminal-resource-manual-19-genocide-18-usc-1091
[87] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/09/darfur-rsf-fashir-geneina-hrw; https://www.hrw.org/report/2024/05/09/massalit-will-not-come-home/ethnic-cleansing-and-crimes-against-humanity-el
[88] https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/aug/07/genocide-sudan-zamzam-camp-timeline; https://www.msf.org/besieged-attacked-starved-mass-atrocities-el-fasher
[89] https://www.hrw.org/report/2024/05/09/massalit-will-not-come-home/ethnic-cleansing-and-crimes-against-humanity-el; https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2024/09/sudan-turk-sounds-alarm-over-hostilities-el-fasher-warns-serious-human
[90] https://2021-2025.state.gov/genocide-determination-in-sudan-and-imposing-accountability-measures
[92] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/29/putin-russia-wagner-militia-africa-immigration-europe
[93] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/19/world/europe/lithuania-belarus-migrants-european-union.html; https://apnews.com/article/finland-russia-migrants-border-nato-eu-0e1ba68a783e3aa392539074c4dc39e1
[94] https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/—ed_protect/—protrav/—migrant/documents/publication/wcms_763803.pdf; https://globalvoices.org/2023/04/26/human-trafficking-forced-labor-and-exploitation-of-migrants-in-russia
[95] https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/niger-junta-repeals-law-aimed-slowing-migration-europe-2023-11-27; https://www.reuters.com/world/niger-coup-risks-jump-eu-immigration-commissioner-says-2024-04-09
[96] https://www.politico.eu/article/libya-eu-migration-commissioner-magnus-brunner-diplomatic-mission; https://apnews.com/article/migration-eu-libya-753134ad397be86687688a32b51f707f
[97] https://acleddata.com/2023/09/21/fact-sheet-attacks-on-civilians-spike-in-mali-as-security-deteriorates-across-the-sahel; https://acleddata.com/conflict-watchlist-2024/sahel; https://apnews.com/article/politics-mali-government-russia-violence-10ba966bceb2dc732cb170b16258e5a6; https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/23/mali-russia-west-africa-wagner; https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/03/28/mali-army-wagner-group-atrocities-against-civilians; https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/07/24/mali-new-atrocities-malian-army-apparent-wagner-fighters; https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/16/europe/europe-migration-chaos-boat-arrivals-intl/index.html; https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/01/10/europe-faced-migration-resurgence-from-africa-in-2023_6420639_4.html
[98] https://www.aei.org/op-eds/russia-created-a-refugee-crisis-and-now-putin-is-weaponizing-it; https://mwi.westpoint.edu/weaponized-migration-in-eastern-europes-frozen-north-do-not-overlook-russian-hybrid-warfare; https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/18/russia-ukraine-war-migration-food-crisis-putin
[100] https://x.com/WerbCharlie/status/1953038477961941474; https://x.com/brantphilip1978/status/1953035358842548414; https://www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/20250806-niger-avec-garkouwar-kassa-le-m62-veut-former-une-milice-civile-pour-appuyer-les-forces-de-scurit https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2025/08/08/le-niger-cree-une-milice-patriotique-pour-combattre-les-groupes-djihadistes_6627465_3212.html
[102] https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/sahel/niger/b172-murder-tillabery-calming-nigers-emerging-communal-crisis; https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/sahel/niger/289-sidelining-islamic-state-nigers-tillabery
[103] https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/sahel/niger/b172-murder-tillabery-calming-nigers-emerging-communal-crisis; https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/sahel/niger/289-sidelining-islamic-state-nigers-tillabery
[104] https://acleddata.com/profile/volunteers-defense-homeland-vdp; https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/sahel/burkina-faso/burkina-faso/313-armer-les-civils-au-prix-de-la-cohesion-sociale
[106] ACLED database, available at https://acleddata.com/data-export-tool
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https://x.com/AAGA_CAWLAN101/status/1952514580124512452
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https://thesomalidigest dot com/al-shabab-tightens-grip-around-mogadishus-suburbs; https://www.caasimada dot net/xogta-dagaal-cusus-oo-xalay-kasoo-bilowday-awdheegle-yaa-caawa-heysta-magaalada
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