You are viewing Crypto Daybook Americas, your morning briefing on what happened in the crypto markets overnight and what’s expected during the coming day. Crypto Daybook Americas will kickstart your morning with comprehensive insights. If you’re not already subscribed to the email, click here. You won’t want to start your day without it.
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin BTC$89,612.77 rebounded to almost $90,000, reversing Sunday’s drop to trade largely unchanged over 24 hours. The same can be said for the broader market, with both the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) and CoinDesk 80 (CD80) indexes little changed. The only notable winner is the RAIN token, which has added over 6%.
BTC’s recovery is consistent with the 0.5% gains in futures tied to the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, and with the continued weak tone in the dollar.
“Price action is compressed. Volatility is present, but conviction is not. This remains a market waiting for a catalyst,” Timothy Misir, the head of research at BRN, said in an email.
Catalysts are plenty this week: U.S. retail sales, jobs data, inflation reports and multiple Fed speakers will take center stage, influencing expectations of how quickly the central bank might ease interest rates next year. Plus, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points.
“Any upside surprise risks reinforcing the ‘hawkish cut’ narrative, while softer data could reopen the door for risk assets into year-end. For crypto, macro sensitivity remains elevated until clarity emerges,” Misir noted.
Market sentiment has turned fearful, according to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, flipping the pain trade higher. The market’s cleaner too, nearly $300 million in leveraged bets were wiped out over 24 hours, mostly longs, according to Coinglass. These factors back price gains.
Bears, however, also have a reasons to feel emboldened. While the MOVE index, which represents the 30-day implied volatility in Treasury notes, suggests renewed bullishness or a pickup in bond-market turbulence, market swoons usually accompany heightened volatility in Treasury notes.
Coincidentally, Nasdaq’s technicals are pointing to an end of the recovery rally from November, and BTC’s options market continues to show a bias for puts across multiple timeframes.
In other news, BTC’s hash rate, or the computer power dedicated to the blockchain, reportedly fell 8% to 1,200 EH/s. Nano Labs’ founder, Kong Jianping, linked the drop to the closure of mining farms in Xinjiang, China.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission released a wallet and custody investor guide, outlining risks across different custody models and best practices. It warned investors to assess whether custodians rehypothecate assets or commingle assets.
In traditional markets, gold extended gains while some analysts warned that the downside in the Dollar Index looks limited. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
