I am Stephen Davis, senior market strategist at Walsh Trading, Inc., Chicago, Illinois. You can reach me at 312-878-2391.
The lean hogs market continues to trend higher as we await year-end government reports. The next weekly export sales report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) will be out tomorrow along with updated Commitment of Traders data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Meanwhile, the December 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report from the USDA states, “Pork exports are lowered for 2025, as lower third-quarter shipments based on recent trade data are partially offset by higher expected demand in the fourth quarter. The stronger demand is expected to carry into 2026, increasing 2026 pork exports.”
The chart below looks good in my opinion as the price of February 2026 lean hogs is above the 200-day moving average. Look for this trend to continue.
When I wrote about lean hogs on December 16, I recommended selling February 2026 lean hogs 80 puts and with that premium, buy February 2026 lean hogs 90 calls. That would have been successful. Watch the gap area at 86.425. In my opinion, that is where the market is headed in the short term. In my December 16 article, I predicted the market would reach 90 but now I think it could go to 91 or 92.
An option trade strategy is to sell two February 2026 lean hogs 82 puts at 0.80 ($640.00). With that premium, buy one February 2026 lean hogs 86 call for a premium of 1.65 ($666.00). The puts you sell will almost pay for the call you buy. These options expire on February 13, 2026. This is plenty of time for lean hogs to trade higher, in my opinion.
To discuss trading strategies, contact me anytime. Have an excellent day and healthy, prosperous new year.
Stephen Davis
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading
Direct 312 878 2391
Toll Free 800 556 9411
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Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
