Trump says US has ‘captured’ Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife in ‘large-scale strike’ BBC. Larry Wilkerson did say it could be done with as little as a brigade some time ago. This is so so bad. Among other things, China and Russia will go on full war footings. A contact who taught Global South diplomats said right after the strikes began:
“One of my ex students is there. Armed mobs are hunting down Americans.” He added later: “The riots in Iran seem to be petering out as counter protestors are taking to the streets to hunt down the armed provocateurs. 30+ caught so far plus a factory full of women making petrol bombs. It would suck to be them.”
And: “I’m not sure what kidnapping Maduro achieved, they have a VP who will step into his shoes. Does Marchado think she’ll be greeted with rose petals? And on what grounds will she be installed, she wasn’t even in the presidential race. So much for democracy.”
And will the militia blow up the oil wells?
Venezuelan president Maduro captured and flown out of country following ‘large scale’ US attack, Trump says – live Guardian. From its feed:
Venezuela will resist the presence of foreign troops, defence minister Vladimir Padrino said in a video early on Saturday, reports Reuters, as Donald Trump said Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro had been captured and flown out of the country.
A US attack on the country in the early morning struck civilian areas, Padrino said, and Venezuela is compiling information about dead and injured people.
Live: Trump claims Venezuela’s Maduro ‘captured’ after attacks Aljazeera. Live feed. An entry just before 6 AM EST:
Sultan Barakat, professor of public policy at Hamad Bin Khalifa University in Qatar, told Al Jazeera that the US’s actions in Venezuela signal an end to respect for international law and that it has also given international rivals an excuse to do the same thing.
“This is probably a nail in the coffin of any international agreement. The very principle of state sovereignty now has been taken apart,” Barakat said.
Multiple explosions rock Venezuelan capital Caracas CNN
Note this tweet is dated just before the strike started. Were the Chinese officials in Caracas when the attack began? Was this part of what drove the timing?
Glaciers are melting. It may reawaken the world’s most dangerous volcanoes CNN
Wildfire smoke is a national crisis, and it’s worse than you think Grist
Why there’s no escape from Delhi’s biggest killer Sky
How the climate crisis showed up in Americans’ lives this year: ‘The shift has been swift and stark’ Guardian
Forcing lifestyle changes could weaken support for climate action, study finds Independent. Sigh. There will be forced lifestyle changes. You can choose a few now or have even more later. Scarcity and crisis will make them inevitable.
The Well Watchers Mother Jones (guurst)
China?
China must take action to avoid Japan-style deflation spiral, scholars warn South China Morning Post
Taiwan’s £7.5tn secret weapon is disintegrating Telegraph
Beijing appears to warn it could intercept Evergreen ships transporting HIMARS to Taiwan, in war or peace Pekingology
China Arms a Container Ship | Picket/Surveillance | First Strike | Cost Effective | Expendable What’s Going on With Shipping? YouTube
Japan
Pacifist Japan has slowly transformed from exclusively self-defense to a military build-up Los Angeles Times
European Disunion
Christine Lagarde’s pay is 50% higher than disclosed by ECB Financial Times (Micael T)
People in Germany are increasingly worried about their jobs, according to a survey DPA International
French farmer protests: union calls for ‘mass restart’ of action Connexion
The Agricultural Revolt on Europe’s Southern Periphery: Greece’s Warning to the EU’s Federalist Project New Eastern Outlook (Micael T)
Germany begins sending forms to 18-year-olds asking them if they are fit for war as conscription laws come into effect Daily Mail
Finland aims to boost reservist numbers to a million – by raising upper age limit Force News
Aftonbladet’s survey shows: 22 percent of women do not want to have children Aftonbladet via machine translation (Micael T)
Old Blighty
UK government vows to ‘defend’ decision to strip Shamima Begum of citizenship Middle East Eye (resilc)
Jewish groups warned ban on Maccabi Tel Aviv fans attending match could be seen as ‘antisemitic’ Guardian
Israel v. The Resistance
Abraham Accords: Less Historic Than Advertised Libertarian Institute (Kevin W). From last month, still germane
AIPAC IS RETREATING FROM ENDORSEMENTS AND ELECTION SPENDING. IT WON’T GIVE UP ITS INFLUENCE. Intercept (resilc)
Photos: Thousands march in Turkiye in support of Gaza on New Year’s Day Aljazeera
At least seven killed as protests spread in Iran ITV. Note that security forces were apparently among the dead.
Trump says if Iran “kills peaceful protesters,” the U.S. will “come to their rescue” CBS. doug c: “I guess a few will be shot from a roof top now?”
Trump Says U.S. Is ‘Locked and Loaded’ if Iran Kills Protesters New York Times (resilc)
Trump’s Threat to ‘Rescue’ Iranian Protesters Is Reckless Daniel Larison
US and Israel Prepping for a New Attack on Iran by Creating a Narrative of Government Chaos Larry Johnson. As much as I like Johnson, I differ with this framing. The US likely believes its PR as in it has convinced itself that there is an opportunity where one does not exist much. Secondly, Bibi’s urgent need to go after Iran now due to cratering US popular support of Israel leads Israel to greatly overhype any supposed opportunities or threats.
Saudi Arabia sets executions record in 2025, putting 356 people to death New Arab (resilc)
Saudis v. UAE
Saudi Arabia backs Yemeni president’s call for Riyadh talks, urges southern factions to attend Anadolu Agency
New Not-So-Cold War
SITREP 1/2/26: Odessa Pressure Peaks, as Zelensky Announces Major Senior Staff Reshuffle Simplicius
Zelensky names spy chief to head presidential office after corruption row BBC
Will Zelensky survive 2026? Events in Ukraine. Leans toward a Betteridge Law violation
Is Trump Just Too Damn Nice? Or is that Putin? Olivier Boyd-Barrett. IMHO buries a key idea, that the recent barrage of press stories, notably a major piece in the New York Times, about the US and Ukraine “separating” is a disinfo operation.
Putin Assassination Attempt Foiled. Trump Threatens Attack On Iran Amid Protest Jamarl Thomas, YouTube. From Helmer by e-mail:
In the Jamarl Thomas podcast I’ve tried to go from the military facts on the ground to the political facts on the ground, and thence to the strategic consequences:
— If the CIA/Ratcliffe are telling the truth and if Trump believes it, then no US agreement on Russian terms is possible in the weeks ahead.
— if GRU/Kostyukov is telling the truth, and the attack was targeted on the President or the nuclear command-control bunker, this triggers Russian nuclear retaliation doctrine. Short of nuclear retaliation, what can Putin do if the American side is determined to go on supporting Zelensky (plus Budanov) and if Trump is endorsing this line? Note that for the exchange of data on the drone operation, the Russian side sent Admiral Igor Kostyukov, chief of GRU military intelligence. The US side sent an unnamed naval officer of captain’s rank who isn’t Rear Admiral Manero, the listed head of the Pentagon’s representation in Moscow — this is a deliberate US insult.
— The Russian side must conclude now that through the drone attack plan on Novgorod, like the June 1 attack on the Tupolev nuclear bomber fleet, the US is threatening to attack more forcefully in the future in the confidence it can overwhelm Russian deterrence capabilities, and with the timing of Budanov’s appoint to be counted as well, the US side is confident it can keep fighting on the front to prevent collapse, keep the regime in power in Kiev for the long term, keep striking at Putin’s and Russia’s vulnerabilities, etc.
Problem in Moscow — what message to send back for effective deterrence? How long to delay before sending it?
I am puzzled by the idea that an agreement with the US on Russian terms is something Helmer sees as possible on any time frame short of having to come to grips with an imminent political or military collapse. Trump is a weak person and President and there are too many opposed domestic factions, even if Trump were capable of sticking to decision, as opposed to falling in with the last person who spoke to him.
Ukrainian Strikes on Russia’s Energy Assets Hit a Monthly Record Bloomberg
Listening to what regular Ukrainians are saying about the war Responsible Statecraft (resilc)
Lithuania is preparing to blow up bridges on the border with Russia and Belarus TopWar (Micael T)
Big Brother is Watching You Watch
DHS Says REAL ID, Which DHS Certifies, Is Too Unreliable To Confirm U.S. Citizenship Reason
Keir Starmer is starting 2026 with a plot to tear up our freedoms with one atrocious move Express (resilc). What if you leave your phone at home a lot, or start doing so if this goes through? We were very keen about Justine Haupt’s rotary 4G phone, but sadly it was not to be.
Imperial Collapse Watch
Global flashpoints: the conflicts to watch in 2026 Nation Thailand
Democracy in retreat amid growing global conflict and aid cuts, warns David Miliband Independent
The Ottoman Empire “Debt Trap”: How Britain Bought The Middle East YouTube
ICE Drives Unmarked Cars. This Public Database Tracks Their License Plates. Intercept (resilc)
GOP Clown Car
GOP lawmakers, frustrated with dysfunctional Congress, head for the exits The Hill
Mamdani
Zohran Mamdani’s Message Goes National: Tax Justice, AI, and the End of Austerity Politics Egberto
Mamdani Demotes NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch Ken Klippenstein
Mamdani Revokes Executive Orders That Adams Signed to Support Israel New York Times
Gunz
California ban on openly carrying guns is unconstitutional, court rules Guardian
Economy
World economy in 2026: Three scenarios and a dystopia ElPais
Aluminum prices soar on Trump tariffs, global shortages, and China supply chain moves Kevin Walmsley
Global property bubble watch: Miami, Tokyo and Zurich flagged as highest-risk cities Nation Thailand
List of Companies Laying Off Employees in January Newsweek (resilc)
U.S. households more pessimistic on finances despite steady inflation Investing
‘A state of crisis’: record number of Americans are pessimistic about US healthcare system Guardian
Parents Are Going Broke From Their Kids’ Sushi Obsession Wall Street Journal. No archived or syndicated version yet.
WTF is wrong with these supposed adults? Did they never learn the word “no”?
