Last time Chiefs were 0-2: Kansas City off to worst start in Patrick Mahomes era after loss to Eagles originally appeared on The Sporting News
The Chiefs are in uncharted territory.
Kansas City dropped to 0-2 with Sunday’s Super Bowl rematch loss to the Eagles, ensuring they will enter Week 3 trailing by two games in the AFC West regardless of who wins Monday night’s battle between the Chargers and Raiders.
The Chiefs have overcome in-game deficits before. Now, they are going to have to overcome an in-season deficit they haven’t yet faced in the Patrick Mahomes era.
Here’s a look back at the last time the Chiefs started 0-2 and how often 0-2 teams reach the playoffs.
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The Chiefs are off to their first 0-2 start since 2014, which happens to be the most recent season in which they missed the playoffs.
The only two constants for Kansas City between 2014 and 2015 are coach Andy Reid and Travis Kelce. Mahomes was still a freshman at Texas Tech, and the idea of a dynasty was a distant one, even if Reid helped revive the Chiefs in 2013.
The 2014 Chiefs still posted a winning record, finishing 9-7 after going 9-5 over their last 14 games, but four losses over their last six games were enough to push themselves out of a playoff spot entering Week 17. A win by Chase Daniel, filling in for an injured Alex Smith, wasn’t enough to clinch a spot.
Missing the playoffs still seems like an unlikely scenario for the 2025 Chiefs as long as Mahomes is healthy. Compared to 2014, the Chiefs also have an additional game on the schedule and an additional playoff spot in the AFC. If home-field advantage means something to them, however, falling two games behind the Bills and others before the first half of September even ends is less than ideal.
Notably, the Chiefs never lost three consecutive games with Mahomes under center until Sunday. The streak began with their Super Bowl 59 loss and extended into this season with a loss to the Chargers and another to the Eagles. The Chiefs will aim to bounce back against the winless Giants in Week 2, but they are already somewhere they have not been in the Mahomes era.
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It would be hard to assess the likelihood of an 0-2 team making the playoffs using any data from before 2020, when the playoffs expanded to seven teams from each conference. In 2021, the equation changed again when the schedule expanded from 16 games to 17, giving teams some more wiggle room.
From 2020-24, 42 teams started 0-2 and only five made the playoffs. Statistically, that’s only an 11.9 percent chance.
Realistically, the Chiefs have a much higher chance of making the playoffs than 11.9 percent. It wouldn’t make much sense to pretend all 0-2 teams are the same; the 0-2 Chiefs do not have the same playoff odds as the 0-2 New Orleans Saints for obvious reasons.
2024 also served as proof an 0-2 start can be overcome by talented teams. The Ravens, Rams and Broncos all made the playoffs last season after dropping both of their first two games. Baltimore and L.A. even hosted wild-card round games and advanced to the divisional round.
The verdict: most 0-2 teams miss the playoffs, but the Chiefs — like the 2022 Bengals and 2024 Ravens — are not like most teams, even beyond the fact they faced back-to-back playoff teams to open their schedule. Home-field advantage and the AFC West crown, however, became a tougher hill to climb on Sunday.
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