And if that were replicated across the country it would be nothing short of disastrous.
If things continue along at the sort of rate we’ve seen since Labour came to power, rather than that which is currently in the OBR forecast, it will only be a matter of time before they look again at the numbers.
They do in fact warn that their projections for housebuilding contain “several significant uncertainties” including constraints within the sector and local opposition to the reforms. To that they should add other government policies because since these reforms were announced ministers have done everything they can to hamper them.
They’ve already watered down some of their plans in the face of backbench opposition so environmental and nature campaigners will still be able to easily block new developments.
Any hope that Government backed affordable housing would help reach the target have been ended after the Spring Statement confirmed most of the £39bn trumpeted for this programme is back loaded into the next parliament. There’s actually less money for affordable housing in the next crucial few years.
Added to all of this, the Government is actively making it more expensive to build new homes.
New levies, inherited from the previous Government, will add a few thousand pounds to the cost of each new home. And Treasury officials have managed to slip through a massive increase to the landfill tax, something the previous government rejected, that will halt many brownfield developments in their tracks.
So unless we see some new, additional and radical planning reforms for the OBR to take into account, at some point they will revise down the number of net additions they are currently forecasting. At which point the Government won’t have an economic strategy left.
The minor planning reforms they have half implemented will count for nothing.
Instead of a housebuilding boom that delivers the economic growth that the Chancellor has promised, we are going to see the sector limp along like the rest of the economy because this Government simply doesn’t understand that tax and regulation matter.
Adam Smith is former chief of staff to Jeremy Hunt
