A potential initial public offering by cryptocurrency exchange Kraken next year could draw fresh capital from traditional finance investors, according to industry observers.
Bitcoin surged to an all-time high above $126,000 on Oct. 6 but has struggled to recover following a $19 billion liquidation event that shook the crypto market days later. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $87,015, down 6% over the past two weeks, according to CoinGecko.
Despite the pullback, Dan Tapiero, founder and CEO of 50T Funds, said the Bitcoin bull market remains “mid-stage.” He argued that catalysts such as Kraken’s anticipated IPO and a growing wave of mergers and acquisitions could provide the momentum needed to attract new capital from traditional financial markets.
Kraken announced on Nov. 18 that it had raised $800 million in funding, valuing the exchange at $20 billion. Reports indicate the company filed confidentially for a U.S. IPO earlier in November.
However, not all market participants share this optimistic outlook. Fidelity’s director of global macroeconomic research, Jurrien Timmer, has warned that Bitcoin could face a period of downside pressure in 2026, suggesting the current cycle may not continue uninterrupted.
Crypto industry observers remain split on whether the current bull cycle will extend into 2026.
Dan Tapiero’s outlook contrasts with that of Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s director of global macroeconomic research, who expects a downturn next year that could push Bitcoin toward a local bottom near $65,000.
“Bitcoin winters have historically lasted about a year, so my sense is that 2026 could be a ‘year off’ for Bitcoin,” Timmer wrote in a Thursday post on X. “Key support sits in the $65,000 to $75,000 range.”
While Bitcoin’s four-year cycle initially set the market’s rhythm, price movements are increasingly driven by fundamental factors such as global liquidity conditions and ongoing sovereign adoption, said Jimmy Xue, co-founder and COO of Axis, an on-chain quantitative yield platform managing $100 million in live capital.
“It’s not surprising to see institutional caution as we close out 2025,” Xue told Cointelegraph, describing Fidelity’s prediction of a pullback as “a valid reminder that volatility remains very much on the table,” adding:
“However, framing 2026 purely as a year of downside might be missing the forest for the trees.”
“If global liquidity continues to tighten, that $75,000 support could ultimately form a higher low within a longer, super-cycle structure,” he explained, noting that the traditional four-year cycle is “evolving into a broader secular trend” driven by macroeconomic factors.
The sector’s highest-performing traders—tracked as “smart money” on Nansen’s blockchain intelligence platform—have been positioning for a short-term market downturn.
According to Nansen, smart money held net short positions across all major cryptocurrencies, with the exceptions of Avalanche (AVAX) and the memecoin launchpad Pump.fun’s (PUMP) token.
