Bitcoin’s price failed in another attempt to break above resistance at $94,000 on Tuesday as volatility hit the market ahead of the Fed rate cut decision on Wednesday.
Key takeaways:
- The odds of a 25 bps cut on Wednesday now stand at 96%, according to Polymarket
- BTC price may drop as low as $84,000 if key support levels are broken.
Markets are overwhelmingly expecting a 25-basis-point rate cut.
The Federal Open Market Committee kicked off its final two-day meeting of 2025 on Tuesday, with a policy decision due Wednesday at 2:00 pm ET.
Traders largely anticipate the Fed will trim rates by 0.25%, which would mark the third cut this year.
Prediction platform Polymarket currently assigns a 96.8% likelihood that rates will fall to the 3.50%–3.75% range, with only a 3% chance they remain unchanged.
However, any upside from a potential rate cut appears to be largely priced in.
Bitcoin slipped toward $92,000 on Wednesday as traders grew wary that Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting remarks could unsettle the market.
“Yesterday’s weak jobs data slightly dampened rate-cut expectations and shook traditional markets; all eyes are now on the Fed and upcoming wage data,” Bitcoin analyst AlphaBTC wrote Wednesday on X, adding:
“If the Fed surprises hawkishly or wages stay firm, expect another sell-off.”
The market will be closely tuned in to Powell’s remarks at the FOMC press conference for any hint of a shift in tone.
“The market has fully priced in a 25 bps cut, but the real drama will come from Jerome Powell’s speech,” market commentator Wess said Tuesday.
Key Bitcoin levels to watch
Bitcoin must reclaim and hold $93,300 as support to set up a move toward fresh highs above $100,000.
Before that can happen, BTC/USD needs to recover the 50-day simple moving average (yellow) at $98,000.
The $100,000 psychological barrier remains a critical test, as repeated failures at this level—such as those seen in February—could trigger another sharp pullback.
Above $100,000, a significant supply zone stretches up to $108,000, where the 200-day SMA currently sits. That trendline was lost on Nov. 3 for the first time since April 22.
Bulls will need to clear this region to improve the odds of a push toward $110,000.
On the downside, bears will aim to defend the yearly open resistance at $94,000, increasing the probability of new lows below $90,000.
A critical support zone sits between $90,000 and the prior range low at $87,500, which BTC touched on Sunday. A breakdown from that region could send the price back to the Nov. 21 low at $84,000 — effectively wiping out all gains from the past three weeks.
Bitcoin analyst AlphaBTC noted BTC’s push toward $98,000 but cautioned that a drop below $91,000 would be “catastrophic” for the market.
“But Bitcoin must hold 91.5K now IMO, otherwise we will see blood in the streets.”
The Bitcoin liquidation heatmap reveals a large liquidity cluster between $93,000 and $96,000. Below the spot price, the area to watch is $91,500.
This highlights areas where the price might swing to, depending on the outcome of today’s FOMC meeting.
