ONE thing I learned from Alex Salmond was to consider how your opponents survey a political situation, and Keir Starmer is not a man without his problems – why would he want more?
The UK’s Brexit economy is making matters difficult for Labour, as it did for the Tories and indeed anyone else who would take over. It is very hard to improve the UK when the lost tax money due to Brexit equals £40 billion a year.
Despite understanding the £40bn tax revenue loss and the £100bn economic damage, Starmer and Labour’s fear of Nigel Farage’s narrative outweighs these costs.
In short, there is a long list that is making Starmer’s life a misery: low approval ratings, cost of living rises, inflation pressures, NHS waiting lists with funding shortfalls (remember that £40bn), weak economic growth, small boats, his own MPs, Andy Burnham, and the rise of Reform UK in England.
Now, the current First Minister, John Swinney, imagines that Starmer will add to his growing list of problems by conceding a referendum.
The result will likely see Scotland go for independence, take up months of Starmer’s time and attention, and ultimately result in his resignation if, as seems likely, Scotland wins.
Starmer can assess and dismiss the magnitude of the problem from Scotland with an adviser in 30 seconds.
Starmer: “What are the consequences if I do not grant a referendum to Swinney? And the consequences if I do?”
Adviser: “Well Sir, Mr Swinney is only begging for a referendum; he has no backup plan and you should say no. If you say no, the matter is over in 30 seconds with zero consequences, apart from another of the usual SNP press releases grumbling you are not listening to their political party, which greatly amuse you Sir.
“Sir, if you say yes instead, you will have months of headache that will likely end your political career. Because if the people vote for something you cannot ignore it after they have voted.
“Saying no to another politician’s request for a referendum is easy, saying no to a people voting for independence is a quite different prospect and is, in short, impossible, Sir.
“Indeed Sir, previous prime ministers have been forced to agree to independence they did not want, from four referendums and 19 elections in 23 other major countries, who then became independent of the UK.”
Despite this, Swinney refuses a plan B, a backup plan to ensure a vote on independence.
This makes matters easy for Starmer for when he again inevitably refuses a referendum, like a string of UK prime ministers did to Nicola Sturgeon’s many failed referendum requests, running rings round her without any consequences. Swinney will suffer the same failures.
There is a solution: 19 out of the 23 major countries, alluded to earlier, became independent from the UK through elections.
It must be grasped, by the independence movement widely, that a people voting for independence is vastly different from a political party asking for a referendum.
SNP figures running round dismissing the independence route of at least 19 countries and saving the UK Government from any difficulty is very odd.
Simultaneously wanting to waste one million pro-independence votes, with the “both votes SNP” nonsense, when it is obvious the SNP list vote will again be wasted, making the election of anti-independence MSPs arithmetically twice as easy, is strategically unfathomable if you want independence.
The only explanation that works is that the ambition is to just run devolved Holyrood without noisy people, such as Alba, elected and pushing for independence.
Westminster reluctantly agreed to independence in 23 cases without a pre-agreed process. Swinney seems unaware that we could achieve Scottish independence through an election which is as democratic as a referendum.
We could be on the cusp of independence for Scotland if we trust democracy in all its ballot box forms. Alba leader Kenny MacAskill is awake to this.
However, if there is no backup plan, only begging for a referendum, then it is an independence dead end, and Scotland remains a “consequence-free” refusal for Starmer.
Angus Brendan MacNeil is a former MP for Na h-Eileanan an Iar
