Along the corridors of commerce connecting Moscow and Beijing, the dollar is vanishing. According to the Bank of Russia, nearly every invoice, every shipment, flows in rubles and yuan. It is a radical departure from decades of dollar dominance.
Across the Himalayas, India and Russia have rewritten contracts in rupees and rubles, transforming a patchwork workaround against sanctions into deliberate policy. What began as defiance is now embedded in design: a new architecture of money quietly rising beneath the world’s gaze.
Two centuries ago the British pound rode on the bow wave of the Royal navy, stretching from the docks of London to the harbours of Calcutta and Cape Town. Traders and governments trusted sterling as law. Yet beneath the imperial glow rival powers quietly built their own financial networks, brick by brick, until centuries of dominance began to waver.
The lesson echoes today: no empire’s currency lasts forever. The dollar may still reign, mighty and trusted, but history warns even the strongest of foundations can be compromised once alternatives gain functionality and confidence.
The Brics bloc is quietly building those alternatives. Cross-border payment systems under development promise to clear transactions outside the Western-dominated Swift network, using local currencies such as the rand, ruble and yuan.
The dollar may still reign, mighty and trusted, but history warns even the strongest of foundations can be compromised once alternatives gain functionality and confidence.
Some proposals even involve blockchain or encrypted ledgers, mechanics for a future financial order that could insulate participants from sanctions and political pressure.
Russia’s nearly total dedollarisation in trade with China — about 99% of exchanges now bypass the greenback — illustrates tactical necessity can evolve into structural change. SA watches closely, its position strategic and constrained.
The ANC has rhetorically embraced the notion of reducing dependence on the dollar, framing it as sovereignty-driven policy: strengthening trade with the Global South and protecting the domestic economy from the weaponisation of Western finance.
Yet the reality is delicate. While the bulk of SA’s public debt is issued domestically in rand, the country remains exposed to exchange‑rate risk through its external obligations and dollar‑linked corporate borrowing, particularly in the mining sector.
Foreign reserves remain heavily weighted in dollars, while commodities continue to be priced in dollars. The South African Reserve Bank and National Treasury tread carefully: political support exists for diversification, but prudence and credibility remain paramount.
For SA exporters the stakes are equally high. Paying in local currencies could reduce costs and deepen trade with Brics partners, but banks and investors still measure risk in dollars. The ANC of today, echoing the caution of past leaders who once rejected IMF loans to avoid foreign currency entanglement, supports local-currency alternatives in principle. But in practice it remains wary of radical change.
Yet entrenched dollar-linked debt and the fact that key commodities remain priced in dollars mean any move towards dedollarisation must be carefully calibrated.
Looking back, SA’s approach to reducing dollar dependence has long been shaped by cautious pragmatism. The country has embraced South-South cooperation and pan-African economic solidarity, helping to establish platforms such as the Ibsa Dialogue Forum and advocating for reform of institutions such as the World Bank. But these efforts have stopped short of a deliberate shift away from the dollar — reflecting a persistent tension between strategic ambition and the need for economic stability.
For the ANC, reducing dependence on the dollar serves as a political shield. By shifting trade towards the Brics currencies, SA could insulate itself from the leverage of Western sanctions, following the example of Russia and China, where what began as a workaround has become embedded in the bilateral relationship. Yet entrenched dollar-linked debt and the fact that key commodities remain priced in dollars mean any move towards dedollarisation must be carefully calibrated.
Reserve Bank governor Lesetja Kganyago and finance minister Enoch Godongwana face the difficult task of exploring local currency alternatives while safeguarding investor confidence. How SA navigates this balance will determine whether it can assert genuine sovereignty within the emerging Brics financial order or remain constrained by the very dollar system it seeks to circumvent.
