Trading volumes and retail take rates at the crypto exchange declined, prompting the investment bank to lower its forward fee assumptions.
Wall Street analysts from companies including JPMorgan (JPM) and Cannacord lowered their price targets for Coinbase (COIN) stock after the largest publicly traded crypto exchange missed fourth-quarter earnings estimates.
JPMorgan said weak crypto prices and trading activity weighed on volumes and fees. The bank maintained its overweight rating on the crypto exchange, but cut the price target to $252 from $290 in the Thursday report.
The stock, which is down about 40% so far this year, was priced around $150 at publication time in pre-market trading. It closed yesterday at $141.09.
Crypto-linked equities have had a choppy start to the year, broadly tracking the turbulent digital-asset market. Major companies such as Coinbase have seen share prices pressured as crypto trading volumes weakened and token prices slid. Bitcoin BTC$66,954.77, the largest cryptocurrency, remains well below late-2025 peaks and is now down about 25% year-to-date.
JPMorgan analysts led by Kenneth Worthington said higher operating expenses, up 22% year over year, and a shift toward lower-fee Advanced trading and Coinbase One subscriptions pressured results.
The analysts lowered their forward take-rate assumptions and cited a softer volume and market cap outlook in trimming the price target. The take rate is the percentage of transaction volume the company keeps as revenue.
Coinbase’s scale and profitability stand out in a volatile crypto market, broker Canaccord said, maintaining its buy rating while cutting its price target to $300 from $400 after lowering near-term estimates following the results.
While tumbling spot prices have weighed on the broader industry, the broker said Coinbase remains solidly profitable and is taking incremental market share as it expands its product suite.
Analysts led by Joseph Vafi pointed to progress on the company’s “Everything Exchange,” growth in USDC commerce use cases and expanding decentralized finance (DeFi) applications on Base and Ethereum, in the report published Thursday.
Deribit, the derivatives exchange it bought during the year, was described as a strategic addition helping drive cross-sell activity outside the U.S. across spot and derivatives.
The analysts said global trading volume and market share are up roughly 100% from a year earlier, with recent records in notional volume supported by activity in gold and silver futures.
Canaccord expects a tougher first quarter for the industry, and sees Coinbase gaining market share and stepping up stock buybacks. It views the stock as near cyclical lows, with the new $300 target based on 22 times its 2027 Ebitda estimate.
