Analysts at JPMorgan, one of the leading U.S. investment banks, have initiated coverage of Circle (CRCL) with an underweight rating and a price target of $80 by December 2026.
The initial analysis, led by Kenneth Worthington, was published Monday in JPMorgan’s “North America Equity Research” report, according to a copy reviewed by Cointelegraph.
The $80 target—representing a 55% decline from Circle’s current share price of $180—is based on a 45x multiple of projected 2027 earnings per share (EPS), along with a $10 premium to account for potential upside.
“Our price target reflects a substantial premium to the IPO price of $31, but also a substantial discount to the current share price of $180,” the analysts wrote.
A market capitalization of $21 billion is projected by the end of 2026
JPMorgan analysts acknowledge Circle’s strong position in the emerging stablecoin market, citing its early-mover advantage and broad range of use cases. However, they believe the company’s current market capitalization is inflated.
Data from CompaniesMarketCap shows Circle is currently valued at $43.8 billion, a significant increase from its $8 billion valuation when CRCL shares debuted on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on June 5.
“Our Dec-2026 price target of $80 implies a market cap of approximately $21 billion. We note that the mid-point of the IPO [initial public offering] was priced at $31 or an $8 billion market cap,” the analysts stated.
Competition seen as a potential risk to Circle’s growth
JPMorgan analysts cited several factors to support their underweight rating on Circle, highlighting potential risks that could impact the company’s market value in the near future—including rising competition.
“We view competition as a potential threat to Circle,” the analysts noted, pointing to both rival stablecoin issuers and alternative crypto investment products such as tokenized deposit accounts and digital money market funds.
“The risk is that a few will succeed in taking enough share to reach critical mass in a business with low switching costs, allowing them to leverage the network built by Circle,” the analysts said.
CBDCs among the risks
JPMorgan also pointed to potential regulatory challenges as key risks for Circle, particularly upcoming U.S. stablecoin regulations that may require issuers to hold equity capital proportional to the amount of stablecoins in circulation—similar to Europe’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework.
While the analysts believe Circle currently holds sufficient equity to back its U.S.-based USDC stablecoin, they warned that stricter capital requirements could limit USDC’s future growth.
The report also raised concerns about the rise of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Although the U.S. has adopted a stablecoin-friendly stance to reinforce the dollar’s global role, JPMorgan cautioned that growing CBDC adoption in other regions could pose challenges for Circle’s international expansion.
“Further global CBDC adoption, particularly in Europe, could impact Circle’s ability to scale globally, adversely affecting long-term growth and profitability,” the analysts wrote.
