Ahead of the company’s upcoming financial release, analysts at JPMorgan have revised their expectations for Coinbase. The adjustment stems primarily from a more challenging environment for digital assets in the fourth quarter of 2025, rather than company-specific issues. In a concurrent development highlighting its expansion strategy, Coinbase has extended its institutional reach through a new integration with Interactive Brokers, signaling continued growth in its derivatives business.
The key focus for Thursday’s post-market earnings report will be the extent to which softer cryptocurrency prices and reduced trading activity impacted profitability in the critical year-end quarter.
JPMorgan strategist Kenneth Worthington significantly reduced the firm’s price target for Coinbase shares to $290, down from a previous target of $399. However, the bank maintains its “Overweight” rating on the equity. This revised forecast reflects more conservative assumptions regarding the company’s performance in Q4 2025.
Specifically, JPMorgan now anticipates Coinbase will report adjusted EBITDA of approximately $734 million for the quarter. This would represent a decline from the $801 million reported in the third quarter. The analysis identifies softer crypto prices and lower trading activity as the primary drivers. The bank estimates spot trading volume for the quarter at around $263 billion. JPMorgan projects transaction revenue will come in at $1.06 billion, partly supported by $117 million related to the Deribit acquisition.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Coinbase?
Alongside these analyst updates, Coinbase is bolstering its institutional footprint. Interactive Brokers announced on Tuesday the launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum Nano-Futures for its client base of over 4.5 million users. These new “perpetual-style” derivative products will be powered by Coinbase Derivatives.
This move positions Coinbase closer to the intersection of traditional brokerage services and crypto derivatives. Market context provided notes that decentralized perpetual trading volume in 2025 is believed to have risen significantly, reaching nearly $8 trillion.
Coinbase is scheduled to release its Q4 and full-year 2025 results after the U.S. market closes on Thursday. In the lead-up to the announcement, the stock has exhibited volatility, trading near $163.86 on Tuesday. According to the report, this price level reflects a decline of roughly 27% since the start of 2026.
Market attention is now centered on whether the company’s figures will meet consensus estimates. Despite recent target reductions by some firms, the prevailing analyst sentiment remains a “Moderate Buy” rating, with a consensus average price target of $342.58.
