Officials of Japan’s election administration committee count the votes in an election for the country’s upper house in parliament on Sunday. (Philip Fong/AFP/Getty Images)
Japan’s ruling coalition was projected Sunday to lose its majority in the upper house of parliament, a potentially devastating defeat that could threaten the prime minister’s political future and destabilize his government ahead of a key tariff deadline with the United States.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s influence was already weakened after his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) failed in October to secure an absolute majority in the more powerful lower house for the first time in 15 years, marking the beginning of an unusual period of political disarray for the major U.S. ally in Asia.
Back-to-back losses would increase pressure on Ishiba to resign after less than a year on the job. Voters’ trust in the conservative LDP and its coalition partner, Komeito, has been waning amid rising prices and discontent over the government’s handling of inflation.
Still, Ishiba told reporters he plans to stay on even if his coalition lost the majority: “We must accept this difficult situation humbly and sincerely,” he told national broadcaster NHK as results rolled in Sunday night. He later told TV Tokyo that he intends to continue in office.
The political turmoil comes during a rocky time between Tokyo and Washington over trade negotiations that have dragged on since April. President Donald Trump has threatened 25 percent tariffs across the board for Japan’s export-dependent economy if it does not reach a deal by Aug. 1.
Although Japan was among the first countries to negotiate with the Trump administration, Ishiba and his officials have faced constraints on the concessions they could make ahead of the tightly contested election. Fresh losses may complicate those talks even more, experts say — as Ishiba’s government would face emboldened opposition parties as well as critics from within his own party.
“If Ishiba’s tenure is in question — or he steps down and triggers a snap LDP presidential election — Tokyo will remain unable to engage meaningfully in the trade discussions,” according to David Boling, director of Japan and Asia trade at the Eurasia Group.
There were 125 seats up for election Sunday in the 248-seat upper chamber. The LDP and Komeito needed to hold on to 50 of the 66 seats they’d held to maintain control. As of early Monday local time, the LDP coalition had won back 42 seats, with 15 seats still uncalled. Exit polls conducted by many of the major Japanese outlets, including NHK, projected that it would be difficult for the LDP coalition to maintain its majority.
The top issue on voters’ minds was the economy, polls show. Prices are rising in Japan after almost three decades of stagnation. Wages are rising, but not quickly enough to catch up to the rising cost of living. And Japan’s economy is now facing imminent threats from U.S. tariffs.
Meanwhile, the price of rice — a staple in the Japanese diet and culture — has also been spiking largely as a result of government policies that failed to ensure that the supply matched the demand, also leading to voter frustration.
Those concerns come as the LDP struggles to overcome a massive setback from a political fundraising scandal that has embattled the party and many of its leaders.
These compounding issues have contributed to the public’s perception of the LDP — which has been in power almost continuously since its founding in 1955 — as a “do-nothing” party ignoring voters’ needs, said Tobias Harris, Japanese politics expert and founder of Japan Foresight, a political risk advisory firm.
“I don’t think Ishiba has really done much to change that narrative. And you have new parties coming, giving voice to those who felt that the political system has not listened to them,” Harris said.
Among those parties is the center-right Democratic Party for the People, which is attracting younger voters with its populist message. The center-left Constitutional Democratic Party is the largest opposition party.
“The public has clearly expressed a ‘no’ to the Ishiba administration,” said Yoshihiko Noda, CDP leader and former prime minister.
Another is the right-wing Sanseito Party, which tapped into anti-foreigner sentiments as Japan increasingly accepts overseas workers to compensate for its aging and shrinking population. The party’s “Japan First” platform has gone viral on social media.
“People are simply tired of [the LDP]. There’s this underlying sense of, ‘Maybe it’s time to give someone else a try,'” said Shiro Sakaiya, a Japanese politics professor at Tokyo University.
“Up until now, voters didn’t really see any other party as having the competence to run the government. So, in a way, the LDP has been able to stay in power simply by default,” Sakaiya said. “But now, there are finally parties that people feel might be a viable alternative.”
