Long-term holders are sending Bitcoin to Binance with average SOPR at 1.87.
Jane Street maintains a good net long BTC exposure via IBIT (second-largest reported net buyer among visible institutions in Q4 2025), indicating structural accumulation during dips. Observed intraday behavior is predictable market-making noise amplified by extreme leverage in crypto — not malicious dumping.
For traders, 10 AM ET pullbacks remain high-probability long entry zones with tight stops, provided macro/on-chain backdrop remains supportive. Conspiracy narratives drive retail engagement, but 13F filings show clear net institutional bullish positioning.
The Q4 2025 crash erased more than $1 trillion from total crypto market capitalization and triggered a record $19 billion in liquidations. The shock continues influencing positioning and investor behavior even months later. Institutional accumulation of Jane Street’s magnitude typically boosts retail sentiment, yet some traders argue the firm’s activity as a market maker may be contributing to price suppression by capping downside moves while preventing sustained rallies.
From a technical perspective, the buying did not translate into bullish price action. Bitcoin formed five consecutive lower lows on the weekly timeframe with no clear consolidation developing around the $65,000 zone. Treating the level as a breakout launchpad appears premature given current bid activity does not signal convincing accumulation outside Jane Street’s institutional positioning.
On-chain data shows rising long-term holder (LTH) inflows into Binance, while the average LTH SOPR remains elevated at 1.87. The metric signals long-term holders are increasingly realizing losses on their Bitcoin positions rather than maintaining conviction for future gains.
The data highlights waning conviction among LTHs as realized losses start outweighing the incentive to hold for recovery. The imbalance between LTH distribution and institutional accumulation creates a fragile range where neither buyers nor sellers can establish dominance. IBIT itself corrected 23% so far in 2026, adding pressure to an already strained structure.
The massive accumulation via IBIT suggests Jane Street remains comfortable increasing its beta to Bitcoin rather than exiting exposure. The firm’s positioning points toward systematic accumulation on dips rather than distribution campaigns targeting retail liquidations.
