JACKSON HOLE, Wyoming: When central bankers from around the world gathered in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, this weekend, their conversations weren’t just about inflation or interest rates. Looming significantly over the annual symposium was a shared concern: whether U.S. President Donald Trump’s public clashes with the Federal Reserve could threaten the very independence of central banks everywhere.
Trump has repeatedly pressed Fed Chair Jerome Powell to resign and is seeking to oust Governor Lisa Cook, raising questions about whether the U.S. central bank can withstand political interference. For policymakers abroad, the stakes are high: if the Fed bows to pressure or Trump finds a way to remove its leaders, the precedent could erode long-standing protections for independent monetary policy from Europe to Japan.
“The politically motivated attacks on the Fed have a spiritual spillover to the rest of the world, including Europe,” said European Central Bank official Olli Rehn, who joined other global counterparts in backing Powell to hold his ground. Powell, who hinted at a possible rate cut in September, was met with a standing ovation when he addressed the symposium.
Independence under threat
Interviews with a dozen central bankers on the sidelines revealed unease that the Fed’s credibility could be undermined, jeopardizing its ability to fight inflation and shaking financial stability worldwide. If markets perceive U.S. policy as politicized, they warned, Treasury bonds could lose their status as the safest asset in global finance.
“Independence should not be taken for granted,” said Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel. “We have to deliver on our mandate and make clear that independence is the conditio sine qua non for price stability.”
For decades, the Fed’s model of independence, established when Paul Volcker crushed U.S. inflation in the 1980s, inspired central banks globally. Now, some worry that the model could unravel.
A wider political playbook
So far, markets remain calm. U.S. equities are climbing, and Treasury yields show little sign of panic. Still, the potential shift has unnerved other central banks that already face political scrutiny.
Despite its treaty-based autonomy, the European Central Bank has repeatedly faced criticism for bond-buying programs that critics said propped up governments. In smaller nations like Latvia and Slovenia, the appointment of central bank governors has devolved into partisan bickering. In Japan, political leaders have long sought to push the Bank of Japan into aggressive easing.
Trump’s open search for Powell’s successor, more than nine months before his term ends, has only deepened unease. “It’s as if Trump learned from Abe,” one source close to the BOJ said, comparing the president’s actions to former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s decision to hand-pick Haruhiko Kuroda in 2013 to drive reflation policies.
Maury Obstfeld, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, warned that Trump’s moves could embolden other governments with populist leanings. “Taking over the Fed is one development that would set a very bad example for other governments,” he said.
“How do you look at this happening in the United States, which was thought to be the bastion of institutional checks and balances and the rule of law, and not conclude that other countries are easier targets?”
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