J.P. Morgan updated its financial models for North American Bitcoin miners Wednesday ahead of the fourth-quarter earnings season, and the bank adjusted price targets to reflect fluctuations in network difficulty and cryptocurrency prices.
Analysts at the firm projected a modest decline in bitcoin mining revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025. While estimates for mined bitcoin increased by a low single-digit percentage due to slower network hashrate growth, lower realized bitcoin prices offset production gains.
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Cipher Mining (NASDAQ: CIFR) received an overweight rating and an $18 price target, with the valuation reflecting the company’s power pipeline and pivot toward AI/HPC. Cipher recently announced a $2 billion debt offering and acquired a 200-megawatt site in Ohio expected to come online in late 2027.
CleanSpark (NASDAQ: CLSK) also holds an overweight rating with a $14 price target. J.P. Morgan highlighted the miner’s acquisition strategy, including two sites in Texas which includes plans for a 285-megawatt facility in Austin County. Analysts pointed to ongoing negotiations for potential AI/HPC tenants at its Georgia and Texas locations as key catalysts.
Riot Platforms (NASDAQ: RIOT) maintains an overweight rating and a $20 price target. The bank emphasized the capacity potential at Riot’s 1 GW Corsicana facility. The valuation assumes Riot secures 600 megawatts of colocation deals at the site by late 2026.
MARA (NASDAQ: MARA) is rated overweight with a $13 price target. The target credits MARA’s revised year-end 2025 hashrate goal of 75 EH/s.
IREN (NASDAQ: IREN) holds an underweight rating with a $39 price target, as the J.P. Morgan analysts view the current valuation of approximately $54 as stretched. The bank noted that the stock price appears to factor in deals at undeveloped sites that have not yet materialized.
J.P. Morgan also highlighted an ERCOT proposal that could impact bitcoin miners in Texas, as the interconnection backlog now exceeds 250 gigawatts. The proposed rules include a “use it or lose it” clause, subjecting power allocations to annual reviews. The framework will be presented to state regulators on February 20.
The bank advised investors to watch for management commentary from CleanSpark and IREN regarding the rule when they report earnings on February 5.
