A look at how upcoming key market data could potentially influence rate-cut expectations.
The Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance has arguably been a critical part of the unfolding institutional adoption in 2025.
A sign that US President Donald Trump has been fulfilling his crypto promises, especially in terms of regulation and making the U.S the leading country in crypto.
Interestingly, President Trump just made another important statement about Bitcoin and crypto in general.
During a recent public address from the White House, Trump reiterated his pledge to make the U.S the crypto capital of the world.
Trump also stated that crypto will continue to further, hinting that he was bullish about Bitcoin and altcoins.
Analysts speculated that his statement could point more upside in the coming days.
However, it likely meant that that his administration will continue to unfold the crypto strategy, which so far seems to be integrating crypto with traditional finance.
Although some of Donald Trump’s policies like the tariff wars, hurt the crypto market earlier this year, there were some noteworthy pro-crypto achievements.
Most of those achievements were policy or regulatory-related. Trump announced earlier in March that the U.S government would create a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
However, the government was yet to make solid progress in that regard but has been making progress on the regulatory front.
The most notable of the Trump administration’s pro-crypto regulatory moves was the GENIUS act which the administration passed into law last month.
This law not only provided much needed regulatory clarity on stablecoins but also set the groundwork for institutional investment.
Some other noteworthy developments include tax policy reforms, easing pressure on DeFi.
Donald Trump has also been placing pro-crypto officials in key government positions to smooth the financial system upgrade.
The administration also banned CBDCs, which would have threatened crypto’s dominance and introduced unfair surveillance.
The crypto market experienced an overall recovery last week. Will the market maintain the same trajectory this week?
This is the question, especially considering the weight of inflation data to be released during the week.
Rate cut talks were on the rise in the first 10 days of August as the Federal Reserve continued to face pressure.
For context, the possibility of rate cuts in the U.S surged rom 74% on 1 August to 93% as of 10 August.
According to Polymarket, there was an 82% chance that the FED would announce a rate cut in its September meeting.
However, that probability will be heavily influenced by key inflation data scheduled for release this week.
The latest recovery may already indicate that the market was pricing in the data. While the expectations have, for the most part, been bullish, judging by the fear and greed index, some critics have expressed different opinions.
A faction of analysts have been raising concerns over the heated state of the market and the possibility of a financial bubble bust.
Swissblock’s head macro economist, Henrik Zeberg, recently highlighted that Bitcoin and stocks were at risk of a major crash if the financial bubble were to pop or burst.
Zeberg pointed out that the markets could be headed for a 2022-like crash. He also warned that the crash could mark the start of a recession.
Interestingly, recent controversy over jobs data, weak demand for U.S treasuries, and the dollar index’s declining performance exacerbated recession concerns.
It remains unclear how much longer the market can ward off those concerns, during which ‘risk-on assets’ like BTC and stocks will likely continue to rally.
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