Blake Player, chief commercial officer at VALR, has seen plenty of crypto bear markets, but is this one over yet? And will gold profits now be recycled back into bitcoin?
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Bitcoin (BTC) is down 45% in rand terms from its peak above R2.2 million. Are we at the bottom yet? It took out the 2025 lows at $75 000 and has been in freefall – while gold surged above $5 000/oz.
We may not be at the bottom for BTC yet, but there are some positive signs – the Fear and Greed Index is at ‘extreme fear’ and the Relative Strength Index suggests it is heavily oversold.
These are two important precursors for a rebound.
Gold is down 12% over the last few days – no surprise there given its parabolic run over the last few months – but where are we in the crypto cycle?
Read:
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Previous bear markets have slumped 70-80%.
Bitcoin is down just 45% but there are solid grounds for assuming this bear market will not be as deep as was the case in the past – large institutional flows will return when there are clear signs of recovery, and retail investors may do the same.
Blake Player, VALR’s chief commercial officer, is not convinced this is a crypto winter such as we saw in 2022.
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Not a ‘typical winter’
“I wouldn’t say we’re in a typical winter that we’ve seen in previous cycles where you go through a year or even two years of downward and sideways price action. It’s been a lot more volatile than that,” he says.
“We’ve seen big run-ups followed by liquidation cascades and so it’s had a bit of a different flavour this time. I think the cycle has become a lot more institutionally dominated and the narratives that are playing out now are a lot more aligned to what you see in risk-on risk-off type trading behaviour.
“There’s more than 80% correlation right now between tech stocks and crypto.
“It [bitcoin] is definitely not behaving like gold at the moment, despite that being a previous narrative that has been a driver of price action,” he says.
“And there may still be a rotational trade from gold into bitcoin, but we haven’t seen that yet.”
Stability amid volatility
Exchanges such as VALR are relatively insulated against price volatility. In previous cycles, volumes tended to rise and fall with price. Now stablecoins form a far larger part of overall trade.
Listen/read: Is now a good time to buy crypto bundles?
“Everyone is talking about stablecoins as a new emerging rail for movement of value around the world,” says Player. “We’ve seen this with our institutional partners.
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“We deal with a lot of banks and financial institutions that are really deeply exploring how they can build stablecoins into their operations and into their client experiences. And it’s for sure been the killer app of the last few years.”
With stablecoin market cap now exceeding $250 billion, offering instant settlement and 24/7 movement of money, it was inevitable that banks would jump on board.
All major SA banks now have sizeable blockchain teams and some (such as Discovery Bank) allow users to purchase crypto through their banking apps.
Services hub
Player says VALR has evolved from a “bitcoin shop” to a financial hub – delivering services that businesses and individuals need.
Read: VALR becomes SA’s first licensed crypto derivatives issuer
“A big part of what we do is serve institutions, [helping them] deliver financial services on better, more global and efficient technology. Our hypothesis is that crypto and blockchain technology is going to be big part of that.
“We also see banks coming the other direction. They’re starting to look into crypto products and services, and we’re helping them do that,” he adds.
“And we do see this ecosystem as something where we are doing things that we’re really good at and we partner with folks that are better at doing other things. Likewise, we see banks coming to us to help them with blockchain and crypto topics. We work very closely with the banks on handling fiat currencies.
“It is a natural evolution where the space starts to become more blurry and the difference between a crypto exchange and a neo-bank becomes hard to see.”
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Listen/read:
What’s your preferred crypto exchange?
Are the banks warming to crypto?
Player does not discount the possibility of VALR becoming a bank at some point in the future, though this is not something that is likely to happen in the near term.
Trends
One key trend to watch in 2026 is the proliferation of regulation, particularly around stablecoins.
Some jurisdictions – particularly the EU – are ahead of the curve with regulations requiring stablecoin issuers to maintain 1:1 reserve backing with high liquidity and strict segregation of assets.
Also worth watching are bitcoin treasuries, such as JSE-listed Africa Bitcoin Corporation, as a vehicle for building alternatives to traditional fiat money treasuries. Companies going down this road will have to make a few decisions.
“What are these treasuries going to be doing other than just holding those assets?” asks Player.
“Are they going to become big lenders of reserve assets like bitcoin in the future? And do they start to look more like an IMF [International Monetary Fund] style major lender to other institutions who need those reserve assets? How do they monetise the crypto that they hold?
“I think that those kinds of investment theses are playing out.”
Listen: New rand-backed stablecoin launched
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