What is the probability of Bitcoin’s price exceeding $100,000 on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-focused prediction marketplace?
With four days remaining in January, expectations regarding the levels Bitcoin might test by the end of the month have begun to take shape on the prediction marketplace Polymarket.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $87,832.
In contracts titled “What price will Bitcoin reach in January?” on Polymarket, users are predominantly leaning towards the $85,000 scenario. The probability of it falling below $85,000 is given as 46%.
Looking at the upward scenarios, expectations are more limited. The probability of reaching the $100,000 level in January is priced at 3%. The $105,000 target is considered to have only a 1% probability.
At lower levels, Polymarket participants rate the probability at 9% for $80,000 and 3% for $75,000.
The overall picture suggests that the market is more likely to close January around $85,000 or slightly below.
The price of BTC experienced a significant drop over the weekend as the possibility of a US government shutdown increased.
