Macro strategist Shiven Moodley analyses the carnage in crypto markets over the past week, runs the numbers, and finds some disturbing signs of insider trading. There are also a few pleasant surprises in an otherwise dreary altcoin market.
You can also listen to this podcast on iono.fm here.
Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $110K, while Ethereum and XRP lost 15-30%, leaving traders reeling. Some altcoins shrugged off the mayhem. Binance Coin (BNB) surged 16% to $1 309, while Solana (SOL) held firm at around $196, defying the bloodbath.
Surveying the damage to markets, US President Donald Trump took to social media within 24 hours to reassure everyone that everything will be fine with the tariff wars. No details, just a social media post.
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In this week’s podcast, macro strategist Shiven Moodley, CEO of market advisory firm Novaque, runs the numbers and finds some suspicious trades, suggesting insider trading. What’s really moving the financial markets – crypto included – is the artificial intelligence (AI) trade.
“Eight to 10 companies currently control that AI monopoly. The majority of the stock market price rally now is on semiconductors. It’s this AI hype, the technology, it’s who needs semiconductors, Nvidia getting OpenAI shares, OpenAI buying into AMD.
“When we start looking at that, there’s manipulation in the traditional market, but looking at the capital market, Trump has an influence. I think he’s played a very strong hand in terms of showing that he’s a crypto player and he’s equally a traditional markets player.”
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Insider trading accusations were running thick over the past week after it was discovered that some digital wallets were created barely an hour before dumping of huge crypto volumes on the market, just prior to the crash prompted by Trump’s posts.
Some wallets were opened 30 minutes in advance of this and walked away with profits of $80 million and more.
“That’s 100% insider trading. Someone was insider trading tons of that information,” says Moodley.
Have we seen the end of the 70-80% bitcoin crashes?
Moodley says he’s on the fence on this one. Big institutional investors appear to be backstopping the bitcoin price, pouncing whenever they see price weakness.
“I think structurally the market is more mature. A lot of these larger buyers are just picking up their averages or just accumulating a bit more [when prices drop]. My thesis now is that the BTC structure is maturing, with regulations stepping in.
“We might still see significant drawdowns, but I think it’ll be a bit more on the mature scale. These massive drawdowns are going to come from these major swan events, black swan events, which was looking at what Trump did on Friday [which] was ideally insider trading.”
What’s the buzz around Binance Coin and Solana?
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Moodley unpacks the extraordinary moves in BNB and SOL. In the case of Binance, the launch of Binance Institutional and Binance Wealth presents powerful competition to traditional finance operators, while its treasury services competes with Coinbase Institutional.
“Solana’s ecosystem is really booming. It is trying to position itself as this DeFi [decentralised finance] rail in order to create an ecosystem for real-world assets.
“It [offers] a lot more mobility in terms of a DeFi function that wants to play in the crypto space, because it’s fast, it’s cheaper. However, if you look at Tron, which is in the payments space rather than the DeFi space, there will be overlaps.”
Read: Are SA banks about to enter the crypto market?
There’s a rush of interest in Solana and the solutions it offers in the emerging financial space, adds Moodley.
This podcast covers regulations around the world, how crypto is challenging the SWIFT banking system, and whether the ZAR – trading at R17.25 to the USD – is primed for reversal.
* You can listen to the full podcast above or download it from iono, Spotify or Apple Podcasts.
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