A surge in institutional participation driven by spot exchange-traded funds, a loosening of US regulatory constraints, rising global liquidity, and a leadership change at the Federal Reserve are among the factors leading analysts to argue that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle may be breaking down.
The four-year cycle is historically linked to Bitcoin’s halving events, which reduce miner rewards by half and limit the supply of new Bitcoin entering circulation.
In past cycles, halvings were followed by a familiar sequence: a period of accumulation, a post-halving bull market that typically peaked roughly 18 months later, and then a steep correction that gave way to a multi-year bear market.
However, some analysts point out that Bitcoin’s recent price action still aligns with this historical pattern. The asset has fallen roughly 30% from its post-halving peak in the year following the most recent halving and has entered what appears to be a bearish phase.
Analysts say the four-year cycle is breaking down
Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph that the halving-driven cycle began to lose its predictive power in 2025.
He said sustained institutional demand — particularly through ETFs and corporate treasury allocations — has “softened the expected post-peak crash and reduced overall volatility compared with previous cycles.”
“While the bull market may face near-term consolidation amid macroeconomic pressures, we anticipate it will extend into 2026 with support from ongoing structural inflows and evolving market dynamics.”
Earlier this month, Grayscale forecast that Bitcoin would hit a new all-time high in the first half of 2026, pointing to rising macro-driven demand fueled by currency debasement and an increasingly favorable regulatory environment in the United States.
“We expect rising valuations in 2026 and the end of the so-called ‘four-year cycle,’ or the theory that crypto market direction follows a recurring four-year pattern.”
Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, said in early December that the traditional cycle theory is “no longer valid,” prompting the bank to revise its outlook and lower its forecast, now projecting Bitcoin will reach $150,000 by the end of 2026.
A growing number of industry leaders share that view. Crypto executives including Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley, and Real Vision founder Raoul Pal have all argued that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is effectively a relic of the past.
Four-year cycles still in play, some analysts say
Despite claims that Bitcoin’s traditional cycle has broken down, several analysts argue that the four-year pattern remains intact and that the market has already entered a bear phase.
“Bitcoin entered a bear market in late October 2025, becoming the first major risk asset to price in a slowing economy,” 10x Research CEO Markus Thielen told Cointelegraph earlier this month.
Market analyst Rekt Capital has also maintained that the four-year cycle is still holding. In a Dec. 20 post, he said that even if Bitcoin’s four-year cycle appears “broken,” it may simply be “leveling up” rather than disappearing.
Some analysts add that trader behavior itself reinforces the cycle. Expectations that the four-year pattern will repeat can lead investors to sell preemptively, amplifying downward price pressure.
PlanB, the creator of the Stock-to-Flow model, said on Dec. 17 that much of the recent selling came from “OGs traumatized by 2021” as well as “four-year cycle fans expecting a bear market two years post-halving.”
Analyst Alex Wacy echoed that sentiment on Tuesday, arguing that the four-year cycle is not broken — but that market expectations around it are shifting.
“Altcoins bled. No euphoria. No altseason. Just boredom and pain. While stocks made ATHs, AI went vertical, and gold outperformed. Cycles don’t always end. Sometimes they stretch.”
