Bitcoin’s sharp retreat from its $124,500 peak has reignited debate over whether history is about to repeat itself.
Analysts warn that the current price action looks eerily similar to the setup that preceded the 2021 crash into a long bear market.
Crypto market commentator TradingShot noted on TradingView that each rebound attempt in recent weeks has been met with heavy selling, leaving BTC stuck below its 50-day moving average. This pattern — lower highs followed by lower lows — is the same formation that appeared four years ago before Bitcoin rolled into a brutal downtrend.
Back then, a brief rebound followed a death cross and oversold RSI bounce, only to stall out in a “double top” formation that marked the end of the cycle. With August’s higher high looking like a mirror image of that setup, the analyst suggests Bitcoin could be tracing the same path once again.
At the time of writing, BTC was changing hands at around $108,200, well under the $110,000 level, posting a 3% weekly loss. The 50-day simple moving average sits above $116,000, acting as short-term resistance, while the longer-term 200-day SMA near $95,600 still provides a safety net for the broader trend.
The relative strength index, hovering near 38, shows BTC edging close to oversold conditions. While that signals exhaustion in the sell-off, it may take renewed buying momentum to halt further losses.
If the 50-day support fails decisively, many traders fear a repeat of the 2021 breakdown — an extended correction that could wipe out much of Bitcoin’s year-to-date gains. However, optimists argue that the structural uptrend remains intact above the 200-day average, leaving room for a rebound if institutional buyers step back in.
Whether this pullback proves to be a short-lived correction or the start of a larger downturn may depend on how BTC reacts in the coming weeks as macroeconomic pressures, Federal Reserve policy, and ETF flows intersect with the fragile technical picture.
