Altseason isn’t confirmed yet, but Coinbase predicts September could mark its start.
One speech from Jerome Powell was enough to jolt the entire crypto market. At Jackson Hole, the Fed Chair confirmed that a September rate cut is “on the table,” and that single line lit up the charts.
Ethereum broke into a new all-time high above $4,879, Bitcoin pushed past $117,000, and altcoins from Solana to Ripple followed with double-digit gains.
Markets had already been betting on a rate cut, with odds sitting at about 71%. After Powell’s speech, that number jumped to nearly 90% and crypto traders reacted instantly.
Bitcoin climbed from $113,000 to $117,000 in hours. Ethereum not only smashed through its ceiling but also forced $245 million worth of short positions to liquidate. Solana and Cardano surged, while Ripple quietly pushed higher against Bitcoin.
That XRP move didn’t grab as many headlines as Ethereum’s breakout, but seasoned traders saw it as an early rotation signal.
Popular analyst VirtualBacon was quick to call it a turning point.
“$ETH just hit a new ATH at $4,870. $BTC dominance is in weekly downtrend. ETHBTC climbing nonstop since April. $SOL + $XRP grinding higher vs $BTC. This is textbook altseason.”
The charts may be showing early signs, but the numbers say otherwise. The Altcoin Season Index, which measures when alts outperform Bitcoin, sits at 61, far below the mark needed to confirm altseason. Historically, the average gap between altseasons is 66 days, but this time it’s been 256 days since the last.
In other words, the setup is there, but the switch hasn’t flipped.
Right now, it’s still Bitcoin’s market. The index confirms it, and the reasons are clear: institutional demand, ETF inflows, and the safe-haven status Bitcoin enjoys in times of uncertainty.
That doesn’t mean altcoins won’t run. It just means the broader market rotation hasn’t started yet. For portfolios, the takeaway is simple: Bitcoin remains the anchor, but keeping an eye on strong alts like ETH, XRP, and SOL could pay off when the cycle shifts.
Coinbase Institutional’s latest report points to September as the likely start of altseason. Their research head David Duong highlighted three reasons:
If the pattern holds, Coinbase expects large caps like ETH and XRP to lead the way before the momentum spreads to smaller tokens – and this is proving right as we just saw Ethereum jumping.
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