The market value to realized value suggests ETH is undervalued, with room to run toward $5,500.
Ether (ETH) price has rallied more than 240% since April to set a record high above $5,000 on Sunday. As a result, investors’ profitability has risen to levels seen in the past bull cycles, suggesting that the ETH market is entering the “belief” phase, increasing the chances of an extended rally.
Onchain data points out similarities between the current stage of the Ether market and previous bull cycles.
Ether’s long-term holder (LTH) net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) indicator has entered the “belief-denial” (green) zone, a position that historically precedes significant price rallies, said popular analyst Gert van Lagen in an X post on Monday.
The LTH NUPL measures the difference between the relative unrealized profit and relative unrealized loss of investors who have held Bitcoin for at least 155 days.
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This zone is particularly significant because it suggests ETH has not yet reached the euphoric phase (blue) typically associated with cycle peaks.
In previous market cycles, the transition from belief to euphoria has coincided with substantial price increases.
For that to occur, ETH price “still needs to climb further,” van Lagen explained, adding:
“$10K and $20K $ETH are not unimaginable.”
The market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio adds another layer of validation to the bullish thesis. With a current daily reading of 2.08, significantly lower than a peak of 3.8 in 2021 and 6.49 in 2017, the metric suggests Ethereum remains relatively undervalued.
This lower MVRV ratio indicates subdued profit-taking and increased potential for sustained price appreciation.
Ether’s MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands also suggest that ETH price still has more room for further expansion before the unrealized profit held by investors reaches an extreme level represented by the uppermost MVRV band at $5,500, as shown in the chart below.
But the price can go even higher from a technical perspective. Ether’s price action has validated a megaphone, a chart pattern that has been forming on the weekly candle chart since December 2023, as observed by crypto analyst Jelle.
“This bullish megaphone has a target of $10,000, and $ETH has defeated every resistance level standing in its way,” the analyst said in an X post on Monday, adding:
“Clear skies ahead. Bring it on.”
Fellow analyst Mickybull Crypto echoed this view, saying that “ETH delivered as expected,” referring to Ether’s run to all-time highs above $5,000 on Sunday.
The analyst added that their cycle targets for Ether are $7,000-$11,000.
The ETH/USD pair displayed strength after breaking above a rounded bottom chart pattern on the daily chart. The price retested the neckline of the pattern at $4,100 to confirm the breakout.
The bulls will now attempt to push the price toward the technical target of the prevailing chart pattern at $12,130, or a 161% rise from the current price.
Other analysts also predict that Ether could reach $12,000 and even higher in 2025, citing possible interest rate cuts, capital inflows via spot Ethereum ETFs, and demand from ETH treasury companies, which remain notably strong.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
