3rd March 2026 – (Tehran) Following coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, capital flight from the country’s crypto market accelerated sharply, according to Bloomberg-credited analysis from blockchain forensics firm Elliptic. Net withdrawals from Nobitex — Iran’s largest exchange — surged by about 700% in the 48 hours after the attacks, taking outflows to nearly US$3 million, a rush to safety that shifted funds to overseas platforms and self-custody.
The exodus came despite an estimated 80% collapse in domestic crypto trading volumes between 27th February and 1st March amid heavy internet restrictions. TRM Labs said activity fell due to “mechanical access limitations” rather than a systemic breakdown, but those able to transact prioritised withdrawals over trading. Bitcoin quickly recovered on global markets, yet Iranian users moved funds pre-emptively.
Regulatory pressure intensified around Tether. Iran’s central bank ordered major platforms, including Nobitex and Wallex, to suspend USDT/toman pairs, severing the main bridge between local fiat and global crypto liquidity. Elliptic’s on-chain data indicates 5.9% of recent volume is linked to illicit or sanctioned activity, heightening enforcement risks. If sanctions tighten on USDT rails, domestic exchanges could be isolated from international liquidity, pushing flows into harder‑to‑monitor peer‑to‑peer channels.
Sustained outflows would threaten exchange liquidity as order books are drained, with assets moving from centralised venues to wallets less vulnerable to seizure. The broader outlook is binary – further geopolitical escalation and pressure on the rial could trigger another wave of flight into crypto — and tougher secondary sanctions — while any easing of internet curbs and restoration of USDT trading could stabilise conditions.
