For several tense hours on Wednesday last week, Washington and capitals across the Middle East were bracing for US bombs over Tehran. Senior military, political and diplomatic officials believed an American strike on Iran was imminent. By afternoon, it became clear the command would not be issued. The United States stood down, two US officials told Axios.
President Donald Trump had, over the previous week, repeatedly weighed military action against the Iranian regime amid its violent suppression of protests, in which thousands are believed to have been killed. But a mix of operational limits, allied warnings, internal doubts and quiet backchannel contacts with Tehran ultimately pushed him to pause.
This account of Trump’s decision-making over the past ten days is based on Axios interviews with four US officials, two Israeli officials and two other sources familiar with the behind-the-scenes discussions.
On Tuesday night (last week), Trump went into the Situation Room for a detailed briefing on the unrest in Iran and possible US responses. Though he had already been receiving intelligence updates and regular briefings from Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, this was the first meeting he formally chaired focused on the protests.
Military planners laid out multiple options, including coordinated strikes on Iranian regime targets across the country using US warships and submarines. Trump reviewed the plans, narrowed the choices and asked the Pentagon to prepare. One US official said a strike package was ready after Trump’s discussions with senior aides, but the meeting ended without a final directive.
By Wednesday morning, expectation inside the administration — and across the region, including in Iran — hardened into belief that Trump would “green-light” the operation. Precautionary moves began. US personnel started evacuating from Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar and from the Navy’s Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. Tehran, convinced an attack was coming, issued a notice closing its airspace.
Yet the White House stayed silent. Hours passed without an order.
Trump, officials said, chose to keep watching rather than act. “He wanted to continue monitoring the situation. It was really close. The military was in a position to do something really fast, but the order didn’t come,” two senior White House officials told Axios.
According to officials, several factors weighed on the decision. The US lacked sufficient military assets in the region to sustain a broader confrontation. Allies privately cautioned against escalation. There were also concerns among Trump’s top aides about how effective the strike options would be and what they might trigger across the Middle East.
One unexpected voice urging restraint was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In a call earlier in the day, Netanyahu told Trump that Israel was not prepared for Iran’s likely retaliation. He warned that without enough US assets positioned nearby, Israel would struggle to intercept Iranian missiles and drones if Tehran struck back.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman also spoke with Trump and flagged deep concern about the regional fallout, Axios reported.
By late Wednesday, the moment had passed. The strike plan remained on paper. Asked later about the pullback, Trump told reporters, “Nobody convinced me. I convinced myself”.
Earlier in the day, Iran cautioned the United States that any move to target Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would spark an all-out war, as Tehran signalled a possible return to executions amid claims that at least 5,000 people have died in the unrest.
