Iran’s cryptocurrency market saw transaction volumes fall by roughly 80% between Feb. 27 and March 1 following coordinated U.S. and Israeli military strikes, according to a blog post published Monday by blockchain analytics firm TRM Labs.
The firm attributed the sharp contraction primarily to internet restrictions imposed after the strikes began on Feb. 28, rather than to a breakdown in exchange infrastructure. TRM said recent activity patterns are consistent with “mechanical access limitations” rather than systemic failure.
Despite the sudden drop in trading, the firm described Iran’s crypto ecosystem as structurally intact. Major domestic exchanges remain operational in what TRM called a “risk-managed state,” including temporarily suspending or batching withdrawals, reducing market depth, and issuing risk guidance to users.
Iran’s central bank directed several major exchanges — including Nobitex, Wallex, and Tabdeal — to temporarily suspend trading of the USDT-toman pair, the primary bridge between crypto assets and the domestic currency.
When trading resumed, TRM observed thin order books and brief price dislocations, signs of impaired liquidity rather than a full market halt. Reduced depth and delayed withdrawals suggest exchanges were attempting to manage operational and counterparty risks amid heightened uncertainty.
Such conditions are typical in periods of geopolitical disruption, particularly when internet access and capital movement are constrained simultaneously. Liquidity fragmentation, rather than outright shutdowns, tends to define these phases.
TRM said Nobitex, the country’s largest exchange, recorded roughly $3 million more in combined inflows and outflows after the strikes began. However, the firm noted these flows were “not necessarily outliers in the context of routine operations.”
That interpretation contrasts with a separate analysis from Elliptic, which reported that outflows on Nobitex spiked 700% to nearly $3 million following the attacks. Elliptic CEO Tom Robinson wrote that “The surge in crypto asset outflows last Saturday potentially represents capital flight from Iran.”
TRM took a more cautious stance, stating it “cautions against drawing conclusions regarding capital flight at this time.” The firm argued that observed data is more consistent with temporary access constraints than panic-driven asset exits.
The volume contraction followed coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28 that killed the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The geopolitical environment remains unstable, with Iran’s top national security official stating that Tehran will not negotiate with the United States, despite U.S. President Donald Trump saying talks had been agreed.
In markets where crypto plays a parallel role to traditional banking channels, periods of conflict often lead to short-term volatility in on-chain activity. Internet disruptions, banking constraints, and central bank directives can all influence transaction flows independently of investor sentiment.
TRM’s assessment suggests that while trading volumes contracted sharply, core exchange infrastructure in Iran continues to function under tightened operational controls. Whether flows normalize or diverge further will likely depend on connectivity conditions and the trajectory of the broader geopolitical crisis.
