IMPI Projects 5.5% GDP Growth for Nigeria in 2026
One of Nigeria’s prominent policy advocacy groups, the Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI), has projected that the country’s economy will grow by 5.5 per cent in 2026, citing the new economic model adopted by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
In a policy statement signed by its Chairman, Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju, the group said the projection exceeds the forecasts of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and reflects growing confidence in Nigeria’s evolving economic framework.
IMPI attributed the outlook to what it described as a paradigm shift from Nigeria’s long-standing dependence on crude oil revenues to a policy-driven economic facilitation model.
According to the group, the new approach emphasizes the strategic use of government policies, regulations and institutional frameworks to reduce bottlenecks, lower transaction costs and accelerate economic activities, particularly in trade and investment.
”The facilitation, in this context, aims to foster sustainable and inclusive growth by improving efficiency and reducing red tape,” the statement said.
The think tank noted that the IMF itself has recently revised its stance on Nigeria’s economy, raising its 2026 growth projection to 4.4%, seven months after what IMPI described as an earlier questionable outlook.
IMPI said the revised IMF figure represents the highest growth projection by the Fund for Nigeria in the last 17 years, describing it as a clear signal of renewed confidence in the country’s economic direction.
Beyond the IMF, the group said there is now a broad consensus among local and international economic commentators that Nigeria’s growth performance in 2026 will exceed 4%.
While the Federal Government projected 4.68% growth for the year, IMPI noted that the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) forecast a much stronger 7%, compared to the Nigeria Economic Summit Group’s projection of 5.5 per cent.
It added that PwC maintained a more conservative 4.3% estimate, contingent on higher oil prices, while the World Bank revised its own projection upward from 3.7% to 4.4%.
IMPI said the convergence of these projections points to an emerging economic paradigm anchored on increased production and productivity, foreign exchange stability, disinflation, improved foreign direct investment inflows and a more unobtrusive regulatory environment.
According to the group, these outcomes are being driven by deliberate policy-led economic facilitation under the Tinubu administration.
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