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Reading: Impending Offensives in Central Sudan; Ethnic Cleansing in el Fasher; Deadly Crackdown in Tanzania: Africa File, November 6, 2025
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Impending Offensives in Central Sudan; Ethnic Cleansing in el Fasher; Deadly Crackdown in Tanzania: Africa File, November 6, 2025

Last updated: November 7, 2025 1:15 pm
Published: 5 months ago
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The Critical Threats Project’s Africa File provides regular analysis and assessments of major developments regarding state and nonstate actors’ activities in Africa that undermine regional stability and threaten US personnel and interests.

[1] https://www.darfur24 dot com/en/2025/11/03/army-airlifts-supplies-to-besieged-forces-in-babanusa-as-rsf-masses-nearby/; https://sudanwarmonitor.com/p/027; https://x.com/EastKordofan/status/1985737123706613885

[2] https://www.darfur24 dot com/en/2025/11/03/army-airlifts-supplies-to-besieged-forces-in-babanusa-as-rsf-masses-nearby/; https://sudanwarmonitor.com/p/027; https://sudantribune dot com/article/306815

[3] https://x.com/EastKordofan/status/1985737123706613885; https://sudanwarmonitor.com/p/2bf

[4] https://www.darfur24 dot com/en/2025/11/03/army-airlifts-supplies-to-besieged-forces-in-babanusa-as-rsf-masses-nearby/; https://sudanwarmonitor.com/p/5fd; https://sudanwarmonitor.com/p/027

[5] https://x.com/EastKordofan/status/1985738086509101208; https://x.com/shukrisudani/status/1985751965054238734

[6] https://x.com/VistaMaps/status/1982108547044536682; https://sudanwarmonitor.com/p/30c

[7] https://sudanwarmonitor.com/p/082

[8] https://www.sudanakhbar dot com/1712191; https://sudanwarmonitor.com/p/027

[9] https://www.rfi.fr/en/africa/20251106-fighting-spreads-to-north-kordofan-as-sudan-s-war-turns-deadlier

[10] https://www.darfur24 dot com/en/2025/11/03/army-airlifts-supplies-to-besieged-forces-in-babanusa-as-rsf-masses-nearby/; https://sudanwarmonitor.com/p/027; https://sudantribune.com/article/306815

[11] https://x.com/ThomasVLinge/status/1894375866697732347; https://sudanwarmonitor.com/p/rsf-seizes-control-of-al-nahud

[12] https://x.com/AlArabiya_Brk/status/1985735040475505132; https://x.com/ahmed_albalal/status/1985345511520453018; https://x.com/SudanPlusNews/status/1982844090946564344; https://x.com/Sudanis0/status/1985741699012801020; https://www.tagpress.net/164038/

[13] https://www.africaintelligence.com/eastern-africa-and-the-horn/2025/11/04/general-burhan-reviews-military-alliances-in-light-of-el-fasher-defeat,110544463-art

[14] https://www.darfur24 dot com/en/2025/11/03/army-airlifts-supplies-to-besieged-forces-in-babanusa-as-rsf-masses-nearby/; https://sudanwarmonitor.com/p/027; https://x.com/EastKordofan/status/1983228554994233603; https://www.aa dot com.tr/en/africa/sudanese-army-intensifies-airstrikes-on-paramilitary-rsf-positions-in-darfur-north-kordofan/3736749

[15] https://sudantribune dot com/article/305502; https://english.alarabiya dot net/News/middle-east/2025/10/28/sudan-army-chief-confirms-withdrawal-from-alfashir-vows-revenge

[16] https://www.darfur24 dot com/en/2025/10/16/rapid-support-forces-seize-control-of-abu-gamra-in-north-darfur/; https://sudantribune dot com/article/306067; https://sudanwarmonitor.com/p/7a0; https://sudanwarmonitor.com/p/airstrike-kills-influential-tribal-leader-in-rsf-held-north-kordofan

[17] https://sudantribune dot net/article/306746; https://www.sudanakhbar dot com/1713515

[18] https://x.com/sudan_war/status/1985392584793932215; https://sudanwarmonitor.com/p/kornoi-hospital-drone-attack

[19] https://x.com/VistaMaps/status/1982518849414283719; https://x.com/VistaMaps/status/1979983343828468120; https://x.com/Mos_sd1/status/1980235159904604606; https://x.com/modather98/status/1980257333683864063; https://x.com/sudan_war/status/1979933410958118977; https://x.com/AfriMEOSINT/status/1986057760765571162; https://www.dabangasudan dot org/en/all-news/article/air-strikes-and-cholera-outbreak-ravage-kordofan-and-darfur

[20] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/sudan-el-fasher-falls-niger-islamic-state-kidnaps-american-cameroon-anti-biya-protests-drc-air-campaign-m23-africa-file-october-30-2025#Sudan; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/mali-jnim-blockade-burundi-hedges-drc-sudan-rsf-offensive-is-mozambique-resurges-cameroon-biya-election-africa-file-october-23-2025#Sudan

[21] https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1982950938210861424; https://x.com/AnwarGargash/status/1983054780915429791; https://x.com/NabeilShakoor/status/1982139674237026549

[22] https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/rsfs-hemedti-sworn-head-parallel-sudanese-government-2025-08-30/; https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/sudanese-coalition-led-by-paramilitary-rsf-announces-parallel-government-2025-07-26/; https://www.darfur24 dot com/2025/09/08/——/; https://www.sudanakhbar.com/1712197

[23] https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2025/09/joint-statement-on-restoring-peace-and-security-in-sudan/; https://sudantribune dot com/article/306740

[24] https://sudantribune dot com/article/305175; https://www.thenationalnews dot com/news/mena/2025/09/14/sudans-military-aligned-government-rejects-latest-peace-plan/; https://sudantribune dot com/article/306141; https://sudantribune dot com/article/306237

[25] https://x.com/Sudanis0/status/1985720759248175250; https://x.com/shukrisudani/status/1985746800498638986; https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1982950938210861424; https://x.com/NabeilShakoor/status/1982139674237026549

[26] https://files-profile.medicine.yale.edu/documents/8163d430-7a33-458e-be60-f0022a6c31d2; https://files-profile.medicine.yale.edu/documents/bc5a6e36-8da3-452a-8ad9-18eac96ec064

[27] https://files-profile.medicine.yale.edu/documents/bc5a6e36-8da3-452a-8ad9-18eac96ec064

[28] https://files-profile.medicine.yale.edu/documents/8163d430-7a33-458e-be60-f0022a6c31d2

[29] https://sudanwarmonitor.com/p/rsf-ethnic-based-killings-in-fasher

[30] https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/statement-icc-office-prosecutor-situation-el-fasher-north-darfur

[31] https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/crime_against_humanity; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russia-info-ops-sudan-attritional-battles-ISCAP-ADF-retaliate-DRC-JNIM-ISSP-infighting-Sahel-africa-file-july-17-2025Sudan; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/drc-ceasefire-collapse-turkish-troops-niger-sudan-el-fasher-rsf-siege-jnim-pressure-eastern-burkina-faso-africa-file-september-25-2025Sudan

[32] https://sudanwarmonitor.com/p/rsf-ethnic-based-killings-in-fasher; https://files-profile.medicine.yale.edu/documents/876b4afc-e1da-495b-ac32-b5098699a371

[33] https://sudanwarmonitor.com/p/rsf-ethnic-based-killings-in-fasher; https://x.com/TurtleYusuf/status/1984755525444387306; https://sudantribune dot com/article/306724

[34] https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/sudan-joint-statement-high-representative-kallas-and-commissioner-lahbib-seizure-el-fasher_en

[35] https://unric.org/en/international-law-understanding-justice-in-times-of-war; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russia-info-ops-sudan-attritional-battles-ISCAP-ADF-retaliate-DRC-JNIM-ISSP-infighting-Sahel-africa-file-july-17-2025#Sudan

[36] https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/documents/atrocity-crimes/Doc.1_Convention2520on2520the2520Prevention2520and2520Punishment2520of2520the2520Crime2520of2520Genocide.pdf; https://www.un.org/en/genocide-prevention/definition; https://www.justice.gov/archives/jm/criminal-resource-manual-19-genocide-18-usc-1091; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russia-info-ops-sudan-attritional-battles-ISCAP-ADF-retaliate-DRC-JNIM-ISSP-infighting-Sahel-africa-file-july-17-2025#Sudan

[37] https://sudanwarmonitor.com/p/rsf-ethnic-based-killings-in-fasher

[38] https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/article/darfur; https://hmh.org/library/research/genocide-in-darfur-guide/

[39] https://www.hrw.org/report/2024/05/09/massalit-will-not-come-home/ethnic-cleansing-and-crimes-against-humanity-el; https://2021-2025.state.gov/genocide-determination-in-sudan-and-imposing-accountability-measures/

[40] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/21/world/africa/uae-sudan-civil-war.html; https://documents.un.org/doc/undoc/gen/n24/005/64/pdf/n2400564.pdf; https://www.wsj.com/world/how-u-a-e-arms-bolstered-a-sudanese-militia-accused-of-genocide-781b9803?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqeZDu_HG-ij61-tHjw_LcWH4eSdnaawIX4lkJruuSldLU7AUFA7Ocwde925dpY&gaa_ts=690be6b0&gaa_sig=h-uIte_toj6hX6UajjgfNnjhJsNr6VQKcMJF-R71_LRZmvxl1nmOqSjrwJzcRRx1E1z5fm-vrBvdP-x94rVEOg

[41] https://files-profile.medicine.yale.edu/documents/73142835-15d7-4b8e-9c18-53bcecf5a184; https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/long-range-kamikaze-drones-seen-near-rsf-base-could-worsen-conflict-sudan-2025-09-12/; https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/drones-strike-across-sudanese-capital-rsf-claims-responsibility-2025-09-09/

[42] https://www.middleeasteye dot net/news/inside-uae-secret-operation-somalia-sudan-bosaso; https://www.wsj.com/world/how-u-a-e-arms-bolstered-a-sudanese-militia-accused-of-genocide-781b9803?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqeiq3VsrHOwMrVgH_TuR_P9-YakVycZQ081OF1RPao4HJwS7oaOXyweNrSBHfw&gaa_ts=690b82e0&gaa_sig=687ORw-0dqAsSs-gQ4T3HXvsxywtIBjgkF8N44LYQdmguPbNNyyg_kSQYpFg51qxPsH8HIGLXvi9Cj_kBWWnOQ; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/saf-gains-central-sudan-rsf-drone-strikes-drc-ethnic-violence-iscap-adf-onslaught-mali-blockade-al-shabaab-increases-pressure-central-somalia-africa-file-september-18-2025#Sudan-SAF

[43] https://www.darfur24 dot com/2025/07/13/——-; https://adf-magazine.com/2025/06/rise-of-armed-groups-complicates-sudans-brutal-civil-war/; https://sudantribune dot net/article300823/

[44] https://www.rfi.fr/en/africa/20250810-investigation-uncovers-rsf-military-base-hidden-in-libyan-desert; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/m23-violates-drc-ceasefire-mali-coup-el-fasher-assault-russian-migration-manipulation-libya-nigerien-militia-mobilization-africa-file-august-14-2025#Sudan

[45] https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/aug/07/genocide-sudan-zamzam-camp-timeline

[46] https://www.dw.com/en/tanzanias-leader-reelected-in-landslide-amid-turmoil/a-74582251; https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm2ww0e0jewo; https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/world/africa/tanzania-president-election-protest-violence.html; https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/tanzania-president-hassan-wins-re-election-with-98-vote-commission-says-2025-11-01

[47] https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/tanzanias-president-samia-suluhu-hassan-sworn-into-office-2025-11-03; https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1736729/politique/en-tanzanie-la-presidente-investie-apres-les-violences; https://apnews.com/article/tanzania-election-samia-suluhu-hassan-44d070fe41edae4bc8bd9e2c19e7e992; https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpv1ddevk9go

[48] https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/uncompromising-tanzania-opposition-leader-lissu-faces-new-challenge-with-treason-2025-04-11; https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2025/04/tanzania-stop-repression-of-opposition-leaders-and-immediately-release-tundu-lissu; https://www.dw.com/en/tundu-lissu-defiant-as-treason-trial-begins-in-tanzania/a-72449414; https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/tanzanian-opposition-leaders-treason-trial-opens-weeks-before-election-2025-10-06; https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-28/tanzania-opposition-leader-placed-in-isolation-before-election

[49] https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/tanzania-president-cleared-run-october-election-key-rivals-barred-2025-08-27; https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/tanzania-opposition-presidential-candidate-barred-second-time-2025-09-15; https://www.semafor.com/article/08/29/2025/major-tanzanian-opposition-candidate-barred-from-presidential-elections; https://www.rfi.fr/en/africa/20250915-tanzania-opposition-presidential-candidate-banned-from-running-again

[50] https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/tanzania/enforced-disappearances-and-crackdown-opposition-darken-outlook-tanzanias-elections; https://acleddata.com/report/last-hegemonic-liberation-parties-tanzanias-ccm-clings-power-elections-loom; https://theconversation.com/tanzanias-ruling-party-has-crushed-the-opposition-the-elections-are-a-mere-formality-265771; https://www.africansecurityanalysis.org/reports/tanzania-tightening-political-space-ahead-of-the-2025-elections; https://theconversation.com/tanzanias-samia-hassan-has-ushered-in-a-new-era-of-authoritarianism-heres-how-266598; https://www.hrw.org/news/2025/09/29/tanzania-deepening-repression-threatens-elections; https://www.africaintelligence.com/eastern-africa-and-the-horn/2025/08/27/samia-suluhu-s-manoeuvres-ahead-of-presidential-elections,110514878-art; https://issafrica.org/iss-today/october-elections-will-reveal-the-extent-of-tanzania-s-democratic-decline

[51] https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2025/06/tanzania-un-experts-alarmed-pattern-enforced-disappearance-and-torture

[52] https://www.amnesty.org/en/documents/afr56/0376/2025/en; https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/tanzania/enforced-disappearances-and-crackdown-opposition-darken-outlook-tanzanias-elections; https://acleddata.com/report/last-hegemonic-liberation-parties-tanzanias-ccm-clings-power-elections-loom; https://www.africansecurityanalysis.org/reports/tanzania-tightening-political-space-ahead-of-the-2025-elections

[53] https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20251030IPR31181/elections-in-tanzania-were-neither-free-nor-fair-say-meps

[54] https://www.peaceau.org/en/article/preliminary-statement-of-the-african-union-election-observation-mission-to-the-october-2025-general-elections-in-the-united-republic-of-tanzania-the-african-union-election-observation-mission-calls-for-urgent-constitutional-reforms-and-inclusive-politic

[55] https://x.com/davidcoltart/status/1983968501607100478?s=46&t=P8QUxRU65XTbJLx3JB3ifw

[56] https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1736484/politique/en-tanzanie-700-personnes-tuees-lors-de-manifestations-anti-regime; https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/tanzania-tells-civil-servants-students-stay-home-after-chaotic-election-2025-10-30; https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/31/world/africa/tanzania-deadly-protests-election.html; https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz0x8vdvkjgo; https://www.africansecurityanalysis.org/updates/tanzania-security-update-low-turnout-coercion-dynamics-and-post-election-risk; https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/29/world/africa/tanzania-presidential-election.html; https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/10/29/tanzania-election-president-samia-suluhu-hassan-opposition

[57] https://apnews.com/article/tanzania-election-samia-suluhu-protests-dar-es-salaam-01f98d2009f59c577080647bdbb58106; https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz0x8vdvkjgo; https://www.ft.com/content/82986876-72e3-42d2-84ab-472a2e55310d; https://www.dw.com/en/tanzania-seeks-to-restore-calm-after-election-unrest/a-74559033; https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/29/world/africa/tanzania-presidential-election.html

[58] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/world/africa/tanzania-president-election-protest-violence.html; https://www.ft.com/content/75d6c2be-e2db-45cd-a326-89eeb5c2618a; https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20251103-tanzania-president-to-be-inaugurated-as-opposition-says-hundreds-dead

[59] https://www.ft.com/content/82986876-72e3-42d2-84ab-472a2e55310d; https://www.africansecurityanalysis.org/updates/tanzania-security-update-low-turnout-coercion-dynamics-and-post-election-risk; https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/10/29/tanzania-election-president-samia-suluhu-hassan-opposition

[60] https://www.sadc.int/sites/default/files/2025-11/TanzaniaSEOM2025-PreliminaryStatement-Final3November2025002.pdf; https://www.peaceau.org/en/article/preliminary-statement-of-the-african-union-election-observation-mission-to-the-october-2025-general-elections-in-the-united-republic-of-tanzania-the-african-union-election-observation-mission-calls-for-urgent-constitutional-reforms-and-inclusive-politic

[61] https://apnews.com/article/tanzania-election-samia-suluhu-hassan-d897483abe5a34c1b02422e7adc5891a

[62] https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20251103-tanzania-president-to-be-inaugurated-as-opposition-says-hundreds-dead

[63] https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2025/11/05/tanzanie-samia-suluhu-hassan-une-presidente-elue-dans-le-sang_6652288_3212.html

[64] https://x.com/BenDoBrown/status/1985663403659083911; https://x.com/BenDoBrown/status/1985665752049811566

[65] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/11/04/tanzania-election-samia-suluhu-hassan-internet-shutdown/a4318c48-b959-11f0-b389-38cf5ff33d6f_story.html; https://x.com/LarryMadowo/status/1985366017611112571

[66] https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/05/world/tanzania-election-protest-deaths-intl; https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2025/11/05/tanzanie-samia-suluhu-hassan-une-presidente-elue-dans-le-sang_6652288_3212.html

[67] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpv1ddevk9go

[68] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/31/tanzania-election-protests-opposition

[69] https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2025/10/joint-statement-by-foreign-ministers-of-canada-norway-and-the-united-kingdom-on-situation-in-tanzania.html

[70] https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20251103-tanzania-president-to-be-inaugurated-as-opposition-says-hundreds-dead; https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1736484/politique/en-tanzanie-700-personnes-tuees-lors-de-manifestations-anti-regime; https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz0x8vdvkjgo; https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy7124p544o; https://www.africaintelligence.com/eastern-africa-and-the-horn/2025/10/31/election-crisis-samia-suluhu-hassan-seeks-support-from-ruto-and-museveni,110543456-art

[71] https://apnews.com/article/tanzania-election-samia-suluhu-hassan-internet-shutdown-ed57beb80faff2f9737804217d057cec; https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/05/world/tanzania-election-protest-deaths-intl

[72] https://www.africaintelligence.com/eastern-africa-and-the-horn/2025/08/27/samia-suluhu-s-manoeuvres-ahead-of-presidential-elections,110514878-art; https://www.africaintelligence.com/eastern-africa-and-the-horn/2025/09/17/president-samia-suluhu-hassan-s-pre-election-protectionist-turn,110522987-art; https://www.africaintelligence.com/eastern-africa-and-the-horn/2025/10/28/ahead-of-key-poll-party-and-army-divisions-beleaguer-president-samia-suluhu,110541096-eve

[73] https://www.africaintelligence.com/eastern-africa-and-the-horn/2025/08/27/samia-suluhu-s-manoeuvres-ahead-of-presidential-elections,110514878-art

[74] https://apnews.com/article/tanzania-election-authority-figures-14a71be99acbd4d9c83b6d57fcf74f13; https://www.africaintelligence.com/eastern-africa-and-the-horn/2025/10/28/ahead-of-key-poll-party-and-army-divisions-beleaguer-president-samia-suluhu,110541096-eve

[75] https://www.barrons.com/news/tanzania-president-samia-suluhu-hassan-discrete-but-ruthless-cea275ca

[76] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-28/tanzania-s-ruling-party-expels-ex-foreign-minister-ahead-of-vote

[77] https://theconversation.com/tanzanias-samia-hassan-has-ushered-in-a-new-era-of-authoritarianism-heres-how-266598

[78] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/world/africa/tanzania-president-election-protest-violence.html; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/what-the-madagascar-coup-means-for-africa-mining-and-competition-in-the-indian-ocean-africa-file-special-edition

[79] https://democracyinafrica.org/remembering-not-to-forget-tanzanias-2020-general-elections; https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/11/23/tanzania-repression-mars-national-elections

[80] https://amp.scmp dot com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/1903455/quick-guide-chinas-diplomatic-levels; https://orcasia.org/article/347/chinas-partnerships-with-the-world

[81] https://media.defense.gov/2023/Mar/03/2003172279/-1/-1/0/ENABLINGAMOREEXTERNALLYFOCUSEDANDOPERATIONALPLA-2020PLACONFERENCEPAPERS.PDF

[82] https://www.axios.com/2023/08/21/chinese-communist-party-training-school-africa; https://africacenter.org/spotlight/china-first-political-school-africa; https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/china-is-exporting-its-model-of-political-authoritarianism-to-africa

[83] https://africacenter.org/spotlight/china-influence-africa-security-engagements; https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3272891/chinas-drills-tanzania-and-mozambique-show-blended-approach-military-diplomac

[84] https://media.defense.gov/2023/Mar/03/2003172279/-1/-1/0/ENABLINGAMOREEXTERNALLYFOCUSEDANDOPERATIONALPLA-2020PLACONFERENCEPAPERS.PDF

[85] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-31/african-copper-exports-to-china-disrupted-amid-tanzania-unrest; https://www.semafor.com/article/11/04/2025/kenya-sounds-alarm-as-tanzania-unrest-hits-regional-trade; https://www.dw.com/en/tanzanias-instability-could-harm-trade-in-southern-africa/a-74612170; https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-05/key-african-copper-trade-route-reopens-between-zambia-tanzania

[86] https://www.cn.tzembassy.go dot tz/about/category/historical-background; https://wits.worldbank.org/countrysnapshot/TZA; https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/tanzania-market-overview; https://global.chinadaily.com dot cn/a/202507/03/WS6865e249a31000e9a5739e03.html; https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/military-review/Archives/English/MJ-23/Chinas-Belt/lynch-belt-and-road-initiative-.pdf

[87] https://dailynews.co dot tz/tanzania-in-bid-to-turn-msalato-airport-into-great-lakes-transport-hub; https://news.cgtn dot com/news/2025-06-15/AfDB-president-praises-progress-on-Chinese-built-projects-in-Tanzania-1EdxQEBRnuU/p.html; https://dailynews.co dot tz/outer-ring-road-heightens-tanzania-capitals-status

[88] https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/07/28/tanzanias-economic-shift-the-role-of-chinese-investment-and-infrastructure; https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tanzania-launches-31-billion-railway-drive-boost-infrastructure-2024-08-01; https://www.thecitizen.co dot tz/tanzania/news/two-chinese-companies-to-construct-tanzania-s-fifth-lot-of-sgr-3249808; https://www.theeastafrican.co dot ke/tea/business/magufuli-secures-1-32b-china-support-for-tanzania-sgr-3253350

[89] https://www.reuters.com/world/china-tanzania-zambia-sign-initial-agreement-key-railway-project-2024-09-04; https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/china-to-build-major-railway-linking-tanzania-and-burundi-for-mineral-transport/rtk55cd; https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/chinas-ccecc-invest-14-billion-tanzania-zambia-railway-2025-03-20; https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/china-signs-deal-with-zambia-tanzania-14-billion-railway-upgrade-2025-09-29; https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-29/china-signs-1-4-billion-deal-for-mao-era-african-rail-revival; https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3327348/us14-billion-tazara-rail-deal-puts-china-fast-track-africas-copperbelt

[90] https://ipisresearch.be/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/DARUBINI_Issue-8_MARCH-2025.pdf; https://www.ecofinagency.com/news-industry/0209-48364-tanzania-emerges-as-new-front-in-us-china-race-for-critical-metals

[91] https://totalenergies.ug/projects/eacop; https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-05/china-s-xi-backs-east-african-crude-export-pipeline-uganda-says

[92] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/a-salafi-jihadi-insurgency-could-spread-to-tanzania

[93] https://acleddata.com/update/cabo-ligado-monthly-june-2020

[94] https://www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/20251029-mali-nouvelle-attaque-du-jnim-prs-de-bamako-les-tats-unis-appellent-leurs-ressortissants–quitter-le-pays; https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/us-warns-citizens-mali-leave-country-immediately-2025-10-28/; https://ml.usembassy.gov/security-alert-bamako-mali-october-28-2025alert/

[95] https://www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/20251030-mali-l-italie-et-l-allemagne-appellent-leurs-ressortissants-à-quitter-le-pays-après-les-attaques-du-jnim

https://x.com/julesdhl/status/1984197236692234642

https://x.com/julesdhl/status/1983532440472736190

[96] https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/1985091000831000858

[97] https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/1985091000831000858

[98] https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/1986100225887354978; https://www dot seneweb.com/en/news/Afrique/crise-du-carburant-au-mali-bamako-enthousiaste-apres-larrivee-dun-important-convoi-de-camions-citernes_n_472876.html; https://allafrica dot com/stories/202510300359.html ; https://www dot fides.org/en/news/76976-AFRICA_MALI_Fuel_war_spreads_to_the_Capital_Bamako; https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/1986100225887354978; https://apanews dot net/mali-announces-major-reshuffle-of-top-military-command/

[99] https://x.com/aeowinpact/status/1983847083548537319; http://news dot abamako.com/h/302641.html

[100] https://apnews.com/article/mali-jnim-fuel-blockade-schools-dc75c7ef62995c4f7a25ca4be4b4a07a

[101] https://www dot aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/27/mali-shuts-schools-as-fuel-blockade-imposed-by-fighters-paralyses-country

[102] https://x.com/Wamaps_news/status/1982840101865439238;

https://apnews.com/article/mali-militants-fuel-blockade-c69bee3048e5aa8181a0fb658fb3e20c; https://www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/20251104-mali-les-consquences-du-blocus-sur-l-conomie-et-le-quotidien–bamako

[103] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/10/27/mali-militants-fuel-blockade/bb3d9e04-b323-11f0-88c1-4e2f98984a34_story.html; https://www.africanews.com/2023/05/12/mali-power-cuts-squeeze-businesses-households//

[104] https://www.africanews.com/2023/05/12/mali-power-cuts-squeeze-businesses-households//

[105] https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/1983584577030341000

[106] https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/1983584577030341000

[107] Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) database, available at https://acleddata.com/data-export-tool

[108] ACLED database, available at https://acleddata.com/data-export-tool

[109] ACLED database, available at https://acleddata.com/data-export-tool

[110] ACLED database, available at https://acleddata.com/data-export-tool; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/salafi-jihadi-areas-of-operation-in-the-sahel

[111] https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/al-qaeda-linked-jnim-says-it-killed-soldier-first-nigeria-attack-2025-10-31/; ACLED database, available at https://acleddata.com/data-export-tool

[112] https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/al-qaeda-linked-jnim-says-it-killed-soldier-first-nigeria-attack-2025-10-31/

[113] https://www.clingendael.org/pub/2024/dangerous-liaisons/; https://www.hudson.org/sahelian-or-littoral-crisis-examining-widening-nigerias-boko-haram-conflict

[114] https://www.clingendael.org/pub/2024/dangerous-liaisons; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/uae-regionalization-sudan-war-jnim-expands-benin-nigeria-gulf-of-guinea-mali-sahel-mining-tuareg-fla-africa-corps-shabaab-shabelle-mogadishu-offensive-africa-file-june-2025

[115] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/uae-regionalization-sudan-war-jnim-expands-benin-nigeria-gulf-of-guinea-mali-sahel-mining-tuareg-fla-africa-corps-shabaab-shabelle-mogadishu-offensive-africa-file-june-2025; https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/nigerian-military-warns-new-militia-threat-niger-mali-2024-11-07/; https://www.hudson.org/sahelian-or-littoral-crisis-examining-widening-nigerias-boko-haram-conflict; https://www.clingendael.org/pub/2024/dangerous-liaisons/

[116] https://www.premiumtimesng dot com/news/headlines/800648-al-qaeda-terrorists-claim-attack-near-nigerian-border-with-benin.html; ACLED database, available at https://acleddata.com/data-export-tool

[117] https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/1944154124683292745; https://www.theafricareport.com/396939/sahel-terror-group-jnim-hits-nigeria-for-the-first-time-a-sign-of-expansion-plans/

[118] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/africa-file-may-15-2025-jnim-seizes-burkinabe-capital-blow-to-traore-iswap-advantage-in-lake-chad-is-sahel-operationalizes-nigeria-tripoli-clashes#Niger

[119] https://www.clingendael.org/sites/default/files/2022-12/conflict-in-the-penta-border-area-1.pdf; https://www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/africa-file/africa-file-salafi-jihadi-groups-may-exploit-local-grievances-to-expand-in-west-africas-gulf-of-guinea

[120] https://acleddata.com/report/new-frontlines-jihadist-expansion-reshaping-benin-niger-and-nigeria-borderlands; https://www dot theafricareport.com/396939/sahel-terror-group-jnim-hits-nigeria-for-the-first-time-a-sign-of-expansion-plans/

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