Canalys reports a marginal decline in global phone shipments in Q2 2025. IDC reports a 1.0% growth.
The smartphone market in Q2 2025 showed mixed results depending on the source. Canalys (now part of Omdia) and IDC published differing assessments of the quarter. Canalys reported a slight decline to 288.9 million units and a restricted market growth attributed to a modest consumer demand. Meanwhile, IDC described a market that grew 1.0% year on year to 295.2 million units.
According to the latest research from Canalys, Samsung was the largest vendor in Q2, shipping 57.5 million smartphones, up 7% year on year. Apple finished second, with iPhone shipments down 2% at 44.8 million units. Xiaomi defended third place, shipping 42.4 million units, backed by growth in Latin America and Africa. In fourth, vivo grew 2%, shipping 26.4 million units, backed by growth in India, while Transsion came fifth, down 3% to 24.6 million units.
Manish Pravinkumar, principal analyst at Canalys, said: “While most vendors maintained stable overall performance in Q2, their success often hinged on strong momentum in specific regions to balance softer demand elsewhere.
“The Middle East and Africa stood out as growth engines, each showing robust progress in Q2 2025. Across Africa, strategic government policies, increased vendor competition and a clear shift from feature phones to smartphones, supported by innovative financing models, are accelerating digital adoption. Meanwhile, in the Middle East, rising demand for premium devices was fuelled by the growing popularity of ‘buy now, pay later’ options, a successful Eid Al-Adha sales period and co-ordinated efforts by vendors and retailers to drive sell-through ahead of a busy H2 launch calendar.”
In contrast, IDC, in its July 14 press release, reported that Samsung shipped 58.0 million units, up 7.9%, to claim 19.7% market share; Apple shipped 46.4 million units, up 1.5% for 15.7% share; Xiaomi delivered 42.5 million units, up 0.6%; vivo shipped 27.1 million units, up 4.8%; and Transsion shipped 25.1 million units, a 1.7% decline.
Nabila Popal, senior research director for Worldwide Client Devices at IDC, said: “Economic uncertainty tends to compress demand at the lower end of the market, where price sensitivity is highest. As a result, low-end Android is witnessing a crunch weighing down overall market growth.
“Additionally, lower than expected performance in China also contributed to the flat global growth. China declined in Q2 as subsidies failed to stimulate demand. Although the 618 e-commerce festival was a success in terms of sell-out, OEMs and channel partners used the promotions to clear inventory rather than increase shipments. While Apple was the top brand during the promotion period, it saw a 1% drop in China in Q2, offset by strong double-digit growth in emerging markets leading to a 1.5% growth globally in the quarter.”
In the first quarter of 2024, global smartphone shipments showed signs of recovery, according to Omdia and IDC, both reporting growth but differing slightly in their shipment figures. Omdia estimated shipments at 300.4 million units, up 11.6% year on year, while IDC reported 289.4 million units, a 7.8% increase.
Despite the numerical differences, both research firms highlighted similar trends, including strong performances by Samsung and Apple, as well as growth from Chinese brands like Xiaomi, Huawei and Transsion.
Similarly, despite numerical differences in Canalys and IDC’s assessment of Q2 2025, they both report a similar bigger picture, such as slow market growth, and that Samsung outperformed with AI‑enabled mid‑range devices, while Apple’s gains came from emerging markets. The firms also highlight that economic uncertainty and tariff volatility continue to weigh on the market, with IDC projecting 0.6% full‑year growth and Canalys expecting a flat 2025.
