Osborne warns migration to quantum-safe signatures must start early, as early breakthroughs or risks will come unannounced.
The looming threat of quantum computing has sparked fierce debate in the crypto community. Could a powerful machine one day break Bitcoin’s cryptography and drain wallets?
According to IBM’s Michael Osborne, the answer is not simple — but the clock is ticking.
Recently, IBM unveiled a refreshed roadmap in 2025 showing tangible progress toward its Starling fault-tolerant quantum system.
IBM’s Starling project is its plan to build a fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029. Unlike today’s noisy experimental machines, Starling is designed to run powerful algorithms reliably for long periods of time.
For Bitcoin, this matters because the cryptography that protects wallets could eventually be broken by a machine with enough stable qubits. IBM’s roadmap shows steady progress.
Smaller test systems will arrive in 2025, 2026, and 2027 before Starling itself. Each step focuses on making qubits more reliable and scaling them up.
The key breakthrough is a new way of correcting errors called qLDPC codes. This makes it possible to get more usable “logical qubits” out of fewer physical ones.
In simple terms, it reduces the size of the machine needed to run dangerous algorithms like Shor’s, which can crack Bitcoin’s digital signatures.
If IBM hits its 2029 target, the gap between theory and practice for quantum attacks will narrow. That means the crypto world could have far less time than expected to upgrade to quantum-safe systems.
Osborne, CTO of IBM Quantum Safe, explained that real breakthroughs depend on logical qubits, not today’s noisy experimental qubits.
“You need these very high quality qubits,” he said. He cautioned against taking headlines at face value, pointing out that estimates often rely on assumptions about architecture, depth of circuits, and how classical and quantum resources are combined.
Bitcoin relies on elliptic curve cryptography. Shor’s algorithm could, in theory, break this.
Osborne noted that estimates for the number of logical qubits needed differ depending on how much time an attacker is willing to spend.
“You can trade off the number of qubits… for the time that you’re willing to spend in order to attack a single key,” he explained.
A recent Google paper suggested RSA-2048 could be broken with around 1,600 logical qubits over a week.
Earlier estimates required more qubits but only a day. Osborne stressed that these trade-offs make it difficult to set a clear timeline.
Quantum threats are not limited to private keys. The IBM CTO warned that blockchains rely on external systems that also need protection.
“If somebody wanted to disrupt the operation of a blockchain, then you could look at attacking the consensus protocols,” he said.
Trusted data such as time servers and oracles could be manipulated if not quantum safe.
This creates two categories of risk. What developers can control, like signatures and authentication, and what lies outside their control, such as trusted feeds that power applications. Both need attention.
If a breakthrough comes, Osborne doubts it will be announced.
“The first quantum capability to do something like this will not be announced,” he said.
Instead, experimental machines will likely be tested quietly against high-value targets, such as dormant Bitcoin wallets. The real danger comes later, when the technology becomes scalable and cheaper.
So, when should blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum migrate to post-quantum cryptography? Osborne drew a parallel with Y2K.
The cost of waiting was enormous, even in a far simpler digital world. “The later you leave it, the more it’s going to cost,” he said.
For blockchains, the difficulty is even greater because upgrades require coordination across millions of users and applications.
Hybrid approaches may help, but Osborne cautioned that the term is vague.
In many cases, systems may need to run dual infrastructures side by side, bridging between classical and quantum-safe systems until migration is complete.
What should policymakers and developers watch for? Osborne believes the warning sign won’t be technical at first.
“You will start to see market movements,” he said. If investors lose confidence in non-quantum-safe ecosystems, capital could drain quickly.
For Osborne, the message is clear. Planning must start now. “Awareness is everything,” he concluded.
The future of Bitcoin and blockchain security depends on how quickly the industry takes the quantum threat seriously.
