If permutations go as designed, the global aviation industry could phase out Jet A1 and transition entirely to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by 2050.
This is according to a new study by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) and Worley Consulting published this week and raises hopes for a cleaner, carbon-neutral future for air travel.
Feedstock sufficiency
The study shows that there is sufficient Sustainable Aviation fuel (SAF) feedstock to enable the aviation industry to achieve net zero CO2 emissions by 2050.
IATA said that all the feedstock used in the study meets the criteria and does not lead to changes in land use.
SAF is an alternative to jet A1 (aviation fuel) which significantly reduces carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by up to 80 per cent and the raw materials used to produce SAF are agricultural residue, solid waste, forestry residues and wood waste, crop based feedstock and waste oils.
IATA’s study claims that the main barrier to achieving net zero CO2 emissions in aviation is the slow rollout of SAF technology, not feedstock availability, adding that there is need for technology development and policy support to meet the 500 metric tonnes (Mt) SAF production target by 2050. Currently, it said the only commercially scaled SAF production facilities use HEFA technology, for example converting used cooking oil into SAF. Another barrier is competition with other potential users of the same feedstock. Also, the body said that policies allocating biomass feedstock to hard-to-abate sectors such as aviation must be prioritised.
Airlines will need 500 million tonnes (Mt) of SAF to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050, as outlined in the IATA Net Zero Roadmaps. The body stated that while every region across the world can generate biomass feedstock for SAF production, some countries and regions are hotspots. The US, Brazil, Europe, and India for instance, are likely to dominate, accounting together for more than 50 per cent of the global total availability.
US takes the lead
The US is expected to lead with more than 200 Mt of biomass available for SAF production in 2030 and around 300 Mt in 2050, or 17 per cent and 19 per cent respectively of the global total.
China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), particularly Indonesia and Malaysia, are also expected to emerge as critical feedstock hotspots. Together, these countries would account for approximately 240 Mt of biomass feedstock for SAF production by 2050, representing about 15 per cent of the global total. These countries have existing biofuel industries and offer substantial potential for producing SAF from biomass while Sub Saharan Africa can account for 64 Mt in 2030 and 106 Mt in 2050.
Last year, the African Civil Aviation Commission (AFCAC) urged Dangote Refinery to lead the charge in SAF production. The commission believes that Africa must position itself at the forefront of SAF development. With Dangote Refinery’s advanced infrastructure and capacity, AFCAC sees it as a potential key player in reshaping the continent’s aviation fuel landscape, making SAF production a priority for future-proofing the industry.
IATA and the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) are pushing for SAF to eventually replace jet A1 which is a fossil-based fuel that the industry has used for decades but within the African aviation sector, there are growing debates about the feasibility of fully transitioning to SAF by 2050. Some African policymakers argue that the continent’s relatively small contribution to global CO2 emissions raises questions about whether it is justifiable to mandate a complete replacement of Jet A1 by SAF. When it comes to aviation, available data shows that Africa is punching below its weight. A continent of over one billion people barely does 200 million passengers a year and accounts for just about 2.1 percent of global traffic. Though IATA projects a five percent growth for Africa’s aviation by 2030, critics still insist that the continent should not be coerced into enforcing the use of SAF since its contribution to global air traffic is below 2.5 per cent.
But those in support of it say that there are significant economic opportunities to be gained and that by investing in SAF production, Africa can reduce its dependence on imported fuel, develop a new green economy, and attract foreign investments into the aviation and energy sectors. If the Dangote Refinery takes on the challenge, it could become a trailblazer in sustainable fuel innovation in Africa.
Reactions
During one of the African Airlines Association (AFRAA) SkyConnect Leadership Dialogues monitored virtually by Daily Sun, Mr. Frankline Omondi, an environment aviation expert with AFCAC, shared the organisation’s views and action plan on aviation sustainability in Africa. While acknowledging the challenges of lack of infrastructure and financial resources in Africa to meet IATA’s target, Omondi, who was the guest speaker, said SAF production and use can mitigate the adverse effects of climate change, neutralise Africa’s net emissions, and contribute to the attainment of the global goal of net-zero emissions by 2050.
To solve the very serious issues of lack of infrastructure, Omondi said AFCAC, the African Union’s specialised agency for all civil aviation matters on the African continent and the executing agency of the Yamoussoukro Decision (YD) and Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM), believes that countries like Nigeria and South Africa have the capacity and infrastructure to produce SAF for the entire continent. He said for instance that Dangote Refinery could be repurposed for the production of SAF.
SAF can be gotten from two main sources which are biomass and power-to-liquid. Biomass has the potential to produce more than 300 Mt of bio-SAF annually by 2050 but some of this potential could be limited by use for competing sources. IATA said however that this potential could be expanded by unlocking additional feedstocks or through efficiency gains and technology improvements over intervening decades.
In all cases, to maximize SAF output, IATA said it will be essential to improve conversion efficiencies, accelerate technology rollout, enhance feedstock logistics, and invest in better infrastructure required to scale up commercial facilities across all regions. Key findings from the report show that there are sufficient feedstock and SAF production technologies to decarbonize aviation and meet the net zero carbon emissions goal by 2050. IATA stated that with the right policies and investments, more than 300 Mt of SAF from biomass feedstock could be produced annually and around 200 Mt from e-SAF.
However, IATA said the main challenges are enhancing the feedstock supply chain infrastructure, scaling up novel sources that meet sustainability criteria, and ensuring that the feedstock identified for SAF production are made available to the air transport industry.
“Accelerating technology rollout to unlock new SAF production technologies, especially PtL, including reliable access to the low-cost renewable electricity, hydrogen, and carbon capture infrastructure which are all required as part of the PtL production method are some of the challenges. Other challenges are achieving coordinated government policies to support innovation, and investment to create a fully functioning SAF market, unlocking new economic opportunities. Activating the energy industry to invest in SAF production capacity, support technology commercialization, and align their business strategies with global decarbonisgation goals,” IATA said.
IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist, Marie Thomsen said: “The report highlights the local and regional opportunities for SAF production to create jobs, stimulate economies and support energy security goals. Governments, energy producers, investors, and the aviation sector must work together, de-risk investment, and accelerate rollout. Policy certainty and cross-sector collaboration are essential to unlock the scale we need. The time to act is now. Delays will only make the challenge harder.”
IATA’s Director General, Willie Walsh said: “We now have unequivocal evidence that if SAF production is prioritized then feedstock availability is not a barrier in the industry’s path to decarbonisation. There is enough potential feedstock from sustainable sources to reach net zero carbon emissions in 2050. However, this will only be accomplished with a major acceleration of the SAF industry’s growth. We need shovels in the ground now.
“With this study it becomes clear that we can make SAF the solution it needs to be for aviation’s decarbonization. The potential to turn SAF feedstock into real SAF production is in the hands of policymakers and business leaders, particularly in the energy sector. The conclusion of this study is an urgent call to action. We have just 25 years to turn this proven potential into reality.”
