Veteran crypto fund manager Charles Edwards says Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) current slump is not what concerns him — but the quantum computing threat very much does.
Why Bitcoin Must Upgrade
Bitcoin has endured brutal downturns before, yet the Capriole Fund founder says this cycle feels different.
Edwards noted he has lived through multiple crypto crashes, including 50% daily drawdowns, the $3,000 Bitcoin era, exchange failures, hacks and even the collapse of FTX.
In prior cycles, he said, there was never serious doubt about Bitcoin’s long-term survival, downturns represented opportunity.
This time, his concern is not price, but what he calls a growing quantum computing threat: “I am more concerned than ever about Bitcoin’s future,” Edwards writes.
Edwards argues the Bitcoin Core development community is “fighting the last war,” relying on cryptographic standards that could eventually become obsolete.
He likened it to outdated military tactics facing modern technological warfare.
His core message remains that Bitcoin must proactively upgrade to quantum-resistant cryptography. Dismissing the risk, he says, could prove dangerous.
Quantum Computing As An Existential Risk
In a detailed Substack analysis, Edwards described quantum computing as Bitcoin’s biggest existential threat.
If so-called “Q-Day” arrives, the moment when quantum computers can break Bitcoin’s cryptographic security, Edwards estimates that up to 30% of the total supply could be at risk, potentially undermining trust in its hard-money narrative.
He assigns roughly a 20% probability that such a breakthrough could occur by 2028.
Based on that assumption, he argues Bitcoin’s fair value should already reflect a 20% “quantum discount,” which would rise if progress toward quantum resistance remains slow.
Edwards also pointed to Bitcoin’s unexpected underperformance in 2025.
Despite favourable macro conditions such as post-halving dynamics, pro-Bitcoin policy signals, rising gold prices and expanding global liquidity, markets may be beginning to price in quantum risk.
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