Hyperliquid (HYPE) traded at $35.24 at press time, down 1.7% over the past 24 hours, extending a one-month decline of 27%. The token now sits 41% below its September peak of $59.
Spot trading volume fell 36% to $271 million, while derivatives activity on CoinGlass mirrored the downturn. Hyperliquid futures volume dropped nearly 30% to $1.12 billion, with open interest easing 5% to $1.43 billion. The declines in both metrics suggest traders are reducing exposure rather than opening new positions, signaling caution ahead of a major token supply event tomorrow.
Large token unlock dwarfs HYPE buybacks
According to Tokenomist, 9.92 million HYPE — worth roughly $351.5 million — will unlock on Nov. 29. These tokens, representing 2.66% of circulating supply, belong to early insiders and core contributors whose allocations were locked for a year following the Token Generation Event in November 2024.
Hyperliquid recently unstaked 2.6 million tokens, a move traders interpret as preparation for potential liquidity needs, although the team has not confirmed any specific intention. To date, only 37% of the total supply has been unlocked.
The upcoming unlock is a one-time cliff event, and its scale significantly exceeds the platform’s daily buybacks. Hyperliquid’s Assistance Fund has been a major buyer this year, using trading fees to repurchase over $600 million in HYPE, with daily buybacks ranging from $2 million to $5 million. While these purchases typically support the price, tomorrow’s release is several times larger and could create short-term selling pressure.
Technical outlook
Hyperliquid’s price continues to drift inside a descending channel that has persisted since August. Each rally has failed to reach the previous high, forming a series of lower highs, while lows are also gradually sliding. This pattern indicates a controlled downtrend rather than a collapse.
The upper boundary of the channel consistently caps recovery attempts, while tests of the lower band show weakening demand.
Price is currently hovering near mid-channel support around $33–$35, a level that has repeatedly absorbed selling pressure but is showing signs of weakening. A daily close below this range would put the lower channel area near $28–$30 in focus as the next potential support zone.
Momentum indicators reinforce the cautious outlook. The relative strength index (RSI) has remained below the midpoint for most of the past three months, forming a series of lower highs. Attempts to push toward neutral territory have quickly faded, and recent rebounds have been shallow.
The bullish scenario hinges on the lower channel holding and the upcoming token unlock being absorbed more smoothly than expected, which could allow traders to test a recovery toward the upper channel boundary. Conversely, a bearish outcome would see the market struggling under heavy supply, breaking the $33–$35 support and drifting toward $28–$30 before a solid base can form.
