CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill has published an assessment of the Bitcoin price in light of recent geopolitical developments.
CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill stated that the volatility in global markets due to the Iranian crisis poses a significant test for Bitcoin’s (BTC) role as a “safe haven.”
According to Butterfill, recent developments could lead investors to reassess the place of digital assets in the global financial system.
Geopolitical tensions rose again over the weekend, with US President Donald Trump’s new moves impacting markets drawing attention. Even before the crisis, signals such as the UK withdrawing some diplomatic personnel from the region indicated increased risk perception. However, the rapid developments brought the role of digital assets in the crisis environment back into focus.
At the heart of the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, critical to the global energy supply. Approximately 21% of daily global oil trade passes through this narrow strait. Therefore, any disruption in the region has the potential to have serious consequences not only regionally but also for the global economy.
Butterfill said that the withdrawal of marine insurance in the region and the observed increase in tanker traffic indicate that the crisis is not merely rhetorical, but that markets are beginning to position themselves according to actual risks. At the same time, the re-emergence of actors like Hezbollah and the Houthis increases the likelihood of the conflict escalating.
As geopolitical risks increased, oil prices rose by approximately 13%, while gold prices fell by 1.8%. However, according to Butterfill, the most noteworthy movement was seen in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin, the only major liquid asset that can be traded on weekends, has historically acted as a “safety belt” during similar crises, absorbing selling pressure during periods of risk aversion. However, this time a different picture has emerged.
The price of Bitcoin has risen as global uncertainty has increased. Butterfill said this indicates that investors are channeling capital into Bitcoin rather than engaging in panic selling.
According to the analysis, Bitcoin’s resilience is also linked to the timing of the crisis. It is estimated that large investors have sold approximately $30 billion worth of assets in the last five months. This process has significantly reduced supply pressure in the market. During the same period, many technical indicators also approached their bottom levels.
According to Butterfill, these developments indicate that Bitcoin had already largely completed its correction process by the time the geopolitical shock originating from Iran hit the market.
The most important data confirming market behavior was fund flows. Bitcoin ETFs had seen outflows totaling $4.3 billion for five consecutive weeks. However, last week the trend reversed, with approximately $1 billion flowing into ETFs.
Following the geopolitical tensions over the weekend, an additional $500 million was recorded in ETFs on Monday. Butterfill stated that this data shows investors are not fleeing the market, but rather turning to Bitcoin amid increasing uncertainty.
However, the macroeconomic environment remains complex. In the US, producer price index (PPI) data came in at 0.5% monthly, exceeding expectations. Core inflation was measured at 0.8%.
The continued rise in energy prices due to tensions with Iran suggests that commodity inflation may also increase. This has led to a postponement of expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a rate cut in June falling below 50% in futures markets.
According to Butterfill, this creates a complex picture for Bitcoin in the short term. A high-interest rate environment may reduce the attractiveness of non-yielding assets. However, as tensions between energy-fueled inflation and central bank credibility persist, the appeal of rare and non-sovereign assets like Bitcoin may increase.
Butterfill stated that a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could have broader implications for the global financial system. Developments such as surges in energy prices, disruptions in supply chains, and pressure on the fiscal balances of energy-importing countries could weaken confidence in the global financial infrastructure.
It is suggested that some of Bitcoin’s core features could stand out in such an environment.
Butterfill also recalled the freezing of approximately $300 billion of Russia’s central bank reserves in 2022, saying that political risks in the global financial system could alter investor behavior.
According to CoinShares, consolidation and limited downside risk may continue in Bitcoin in the short term. However, the change in market structure is noteworthy. The normalization of leverage ratios, the decrease in large investor selling, the stabilization of valuation indicators, and the $1.5 billion ETF inflow amid rising geopolitical risk indicate that Bitcoin is increasingly behaving as a mature safe-haven asset.
Butterfill commented, “The Iran crisis didn’t prove Bitcoin’s safe-haven thesis, but it presented the strongest real-world test so far in this cycle.” According to the analyst, market behavior over the past 72 hours indicates that Bitcoin has passed this test successfully, for now.
