We all know that in the current political scene loud and silent storms are boiling up. The political landscape is also lighting up with speculative sparks emanating from strong opinions for and against issues, and declarations of support backed by conventions and gatherings of supporters to hear and applaud rousing speeches.
On the other hand, there are stories of mosquito parties who can’t even afford to make any press releases or gather enough supporters to impress social media viewers. One such party had a video of it launching an office near the state capital showing about only 20 attendants – and mostly from the headquarters, not from the areas itself. Another tiny party had its pastor president telling his supreme council that he formed the party out of obedience to Jesus Christ who directed him to do so in a vision, even giving him the party’s name! The announcement soured the faces of non-Christian leaders and led some to leave the party unceremoniously.
Another newly registered one, led by an unknown with no political leadership record, claims to be contesting in 73 seats! And interestingly, a party from the Land of the Hornbills thinks it can win some seats in PRN17, attracting local wannabe YBs who then bolted once they were told they had to raise their funds to contest under the party’s ticket. Meanwhile a well-known party, whose president is now physically confined, is said to be worried about being cash-strapped.
On the side of the bigger parties, Warisan is touted to be on a strong march, having rejected co-operation with Perikatan Nasional and even other local parties, having declared to go fighting it out in all the constituencies. The word is that the party is enjoying strong Chinese support, denting DAP’s confidence in wresting urban seats.
But how strong really is Warisan? There is a general opinion that it is strong in the East Coast and in some coastal areas. It has now hooked on the MA63 bandwagon, rather lately, its president, Datuk Seri Panglima Mohd Shafie Apdal has ample experience at the federal level, an excellent orator which had helped Warisan’s connection with the people in several areas.
However it does have some weaknesses too. Shafie had said that the party lacks sufficient fund and other than him and Datuk Azis Jamman, the other leaders lack experience at the federal level.
There is also an over-reliance on key individuals – mainly Shafie and Azis. This situation may be a problem with sustenance in the longer term. The presence of Datu Akjan Datu Ali Muhammad, a combative personality who has declared strong support for Shafie and Warisan has tainted the party with his aggressive vitriols against Momoguns, claiming they were later arrivals to Sabah compared to Suluks who he claim are the state’s original peoples. And this adds to Warisan’s dilemma with ethnic labels — despite being a multi-ethnic party, it is often labeled as representing only one ethnicity, which could be exploited by political opponents. It faces a perception among the Momogun communities of being too lenient towards illegal immigrants, which has been manipulated by opposing parties.
And let’s not forget that Warisan has lost several key leaders, i.e. 1. Hassan A. Gani Pg. Amir, Ruddy Awah, Yusof Yacob, Mohamaddin Ketapi, Peter Anthony, Juil Nuatim, Norazlinah Arif, Mohammad Mohamarin, Ben Chong Chen Bin and Awang Ahmad Sah Awang Sahar. These losses had forced Warisan to rebuild grassroots support and introduce new faces. Let’s not forget also that Warisan’s fall from power was largely due to the party’s inability to address the priority needs of the largely rural Muslim Bumiputera and Momogun voters.
Warisan has also been accused of being a destabilizing factor in Sabah’s politics, with actions aimed at toppling the state government. Its electoral performance in the 15th General Election saw the party contesting alone and won only three parliamentary seats, indicating a weakened position compared to its earlier alliance with Pakatan Harapan (PH) .
Another interesting analysis of the party’s strength by local and international academics, as summarized and posted in social media, gives it reasons to worry:
Dr Arnold Puyok (UNIMAS/ IDEAS): “While Warisan remains strong in the East Coast, it struggles to expand its influence in [Momogun] areas. Internal dissent and strategic missteps highlight structural limits in penetrating key demographic blocs.”
Oh Ei Sun (Singapore Institute of International Affairs): “If Warisan contests alone, former Warisan-PH voters will be split; such contests risk trapping ‘middle-ground’ voters, making broad victory pathways increasingly difficult.”
Bilcher Bala (UMS): “Warisan’s decision to go solo is bold but faces major challenges in repeating its dominance without alliances. Direct implication: multi-cornered fights and opponent machinery will test Warisan’s real capacity.”
Tony Paridi Bagang (UiTM Sabah): Bagang highlighted the risk of vote-splitting from multi-cornered contests, which could unexpectedly benefit other blocs. “In practice, this makes the road harder for a stand-alone party like Warisan”.
Prof James Chin (University of Tasmania/RSIS) describes PRN-17 as a “critical juncture,” with the “Sabah for Sabahans” sentiment and very fluid coalition configurations. “In such a scenario, Warisan’s chances depend heavily on alliance combinations and opponents’ structures, not just its internal strength.”
These predictions and analyses, which are not current, are of course still subject to change. Other observers rate Warisan as currently having the highest support among voters. But estimates are subject to reshape in the face of volatile scenarios, i.e. what if GRS decides to go solo, or if STAR or other GRS components decide to pull out from the coalition? The sentiment now is very strongly pressuring STAR to leave GRS and go solo or realign with other parties. There is still time and hidden potentials for the dynamic landscape to spring surprises.
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