Strategy’s (NASDAQ:MSTR) all-in obsession with stockpiling Bitcoin shows no signs of cooling.
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After briefly brushing up against a zero Bitcoin premium in recent weeks, Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza says the company might reasonably have been expected to tap the brakes on its aggressive treasury strategy. But that pause never came. “We had expected as much,” Vitanza said, “but Strategy is having none of that.”
The company has instead acted decisively to capitalize on what many, including Vitanza, view as a likely short-term dip in Bitcoin’s price. In the week ending January 11, Strategy issued 6,827,695 shares of common stock and 1,192,262 shares of its variable-rate Stretch (STRC) preferred stock, raising $1.129 billion and $119.1 million, respectively, for a total of $1.248 billion. No prizes for guessing what Saylor and Co. did next. Nearly all of the proceeds were deployed to acquire an additional 13,627 bitcoins.
With the purchases largely financed through equity issued near parity, the week’s activity generated minimal BTC Yield. As a result, these transactions seem justifiable only under the assumption that Bitcoin prices will rebound fairly quickly.
“Only time will tell,” Vitanza went on to say, “but we believe the increasingly favorable fundamentals around bitcoin – including key macro and regulatory factors – suggest this is a highly likely scenario.”
Looking forward, Vitanza anticipates a continuation of this approach: as long as Bitcoin prices stay depressed, Strategy is likely to be more aggressive in issuing common and preferred equity at lowered price levels vs. last summer when Bitcoin was hitting new highs.
Based on Strategy’s recent treasury activity, the analyst now anticipates a much faster pace of Bitcoin accumulation until the cryptocurrency reaches a new all-time high, which he currently expects around mid-year FY26. Vitanza’s year-end price forecasts for Bitcoin remain largely unchanged at approximately $177,000 for December 2026 and $226,000 for December 2027. Compared with his previous estimates, he now assumes that the additional Bitcoin purchases will be funded through common stock issuance at a relatively low premium, with the premium rising in the second half of FY26 alongside “accelerating Bitcoin price appreciation.”
For FY26, Vitanza projects a BTC Yield of 7.1%, down from his prior estimate of 8.8% and well below FY25’s 22.8%. That outlook implies a Bitcoin gain of $6.315 billion for FY26, compared with $9.4 billion previously.
Based on this framework, Vitanza arrives at a $440 price target for MSTR stock. While that target is down from his prior $500 objective, it still implies a hefty one-year upside of 153%. Vitanza’s rating stays a Buy. (To watch Vitanza’s track record, click here)
It’s mostly Buys among Vitanza’s colleagues, too; while 2 analysts remain on the sidelines, all 11 other recent analyst reviews are positive, making the consensus view a Strong Buy. At $440.82, the average price target is practically the same as Vitanza’s. (See MSTR stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
